Patriots Vs. Bears Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick

The Patriots head to primetime in NFL Week 7 for a “Monday Night Matchup” with the Bears.

New England hosts Chicago in front of a national TV audience on Monday night looking to extend its winning streak to three games while adding to the Bears’ miserable season.

The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites against the Bears, and that has been bet up to 8 points as of Friday. It would not be surprising at all to see that number go even higher, especially as focus shifts from the Sunday slate to a standalone Monday game. The game feels like a mismatch on paper, and the public likely will be all over the Patriots as kickoff approaches.

There also could be some movement in the line once the Patriots’ quarterback situation gets a little clearer. Mac Jones is reportedly getting closer and closer to full health, and it sounds possible if not likely he’ll be back for Monday night, in what would be his first appearance since Week 3 against Baltimore.

Here’s what bettors should know before placing their Week 7 wagers, with odds and props courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Bears at (-8) New England Patriots
Total: over/under 40
When: Monday, Oct. 24, 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
This is the first time all season the Patriots have been favorites of seven or more at home. With Tom Brady, that was essentially a weekly occurrence, but Bill Belichick typically still cleans up when his team is expected to roll. The Patriots have been home favorites of seven or more six times since Brady left, and they are 5-1 straight-up in those games, covering in each of the wins. The Patriots have won those games by an average of 26 points. Three of those came last season when they beat the Jaguars by 40, the Titans by 23 and the Jets by 41. In the Patriots’ last 30 regular-season games, the total has been set at 40 or lower five times. The Patriots are 3-2 straight-up in those games and 2-2-1 ATS.

The Bears have just three outright road wins since the start of last season. They’re just 4-8 ATS in those 12 games. They’ve been a tough bet catching points on the road, too, going 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a road underdog.

BEARS PROP TO CONSIDER
Team total UNDER 15.5 — The Bears have played six games this season and failed to reach 15 points in three of them. Some high-level math indicates it’s a 50/50 proposition. OK, so that’s not exactly how it works, but the Patriots might be the best defense the Bears have faced this season. Maybe put another way, the New England defense will be the most prepared Fields has seen all season, especially with an extra day for Belichick to prepare. Belichick’s track record against young quarterbacks is impressive, and even though Fields is a second-year QB, he has looked more like a rookie this season. It’s not even entirely his fault; the Bears have done a brutal job of building around him, and Belichick has to love what he sees on tape. There are so many ways to attack this offense, and Belichick will probably pick on them all at some point Monday night while holding Chicago to a meager offensive output.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Tyquan Thornton anytime TD scorer (+230) — Thornton made his NFL debut in Week 5 and was eased into things, getting just 25 snaps and being targeted three times. His Week 6 performance, though, was an indication of what the Patriots can do with him on offense. His snaps jumped to 40, and he was not only targeted four times in the passing game, he also got three rushes. He found the end zone twice — once through the air and once on the ground — for his first two career touchdowns. That production obviously isn’t sustainable, but you do have to like the value you get here with a guy the team clearly wants to use in a variety of ways. His blazing speed also makes him live to break one off at any point.

PICK: PATRIOTS -8
There’s a real chance the Patriots win this game 28-7 or something along those lines. Belichick has made it clear he can still lay the wood against bad teams. The Patriots have won their last two games by an average of 26 points against Detroit and Cleveland, and the Bears are probably worse than both of those teams. Maybe there’s some rust on Jones or the Bears bottle up the running game and it’s a little closer than expected. But even if the New England offense sputters, they feel just as likely to score on defense when Fields inevitably hands them one (or two). The Bears, according to Football Outsiders, have also played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point. Now they have to step into the den on Monday night against the Patriots? This feels like a spot where bettors might wanna jump at the 8 points if they like New England before it balloons by Monday night.