Patriots Still Control Own (And Unlikely) Destiny For AFC Sixth Seed

At this point, it looks like the Patriots’ best chance of making the NFL playoffs is to beat out the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers for the AFC’s No. 7 seed. There also is a good chance that the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs occupy the conference’s top two seeds when the dust settles.

But there still is a clear path for New England to finish with the sixth seed, if not higher — and that’s a big deal.

We can’t rule out the possibility of the Cincinnati Bengals or Miami Dolphins forcing their way into the AFC’s first or second seed. However, for now, let’s assume either the Chiefs or Bills will finish with the second seed, meaning the AFC’s No. 7 seed will have to visit either Buffalo or Kansas City for an unenviable wild-card round matchup. For the Patriots, that means there’s a non-zero chance they finish the regular season with a Week 18 road game against the Bills before visiting Buffalo again the following weekend for a playoff rematch.

Obviously, New England wants to avoid those scenarios at all costs. Visiting the Bengals (currently fifth seed), Baltimore Ravens (third) or Tennessee Titans (fourth) also would be difficult, but those games would be more winnable than playoff openers against the Bills or Chiefs. If the Patriots finish higher than the seventh seed, there’s a great chance they’d avoid Buffalo and Kansas City in the first round.

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The good news for New England is that it controls its own destiny for the No. 6 seed. Simply put: If the Patriots win out, they are guaranteed to finish no lower than the sixth seed.

New England currently is 6-6 and in ninth place following the Los Angeles Chargers’ surprising Sunday night home win over the Dolphins. However, if the Patriots beat the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on Monday night, they would move up to the seventh seed thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jets and conference-record tiebreaker over the Chargers. If the Patriots then win their next four games (at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Bengals, vs. Dolphins, at Bills) there’s nothing the Jets and Chargers can do to finish ahead of them in the standings.

But what about Dolphins?

While Miami’s loss to Los Angeles put a slight dent in New England’s playoff hopes, it also opened the door for the Patriots to pass the 8-5 Dolphins. If New England wins its next four games, including a Week 17 home matchup with Miami, it will be ahead of the Dolphins, Jets and Chargers in the standings. Since the Patriots and Dolphins then would be 1-1 in their head-to-head matchups, the next relevant tiebreaker would be in the in-conference record. New England currently is 5-3 against the AFC while Miami is 6-3. The Dolphins will visit the Bills and host the Green Bay Packers over their next two games.

So, even if Miami beats Buffalo and Green Bay, a loss to the Patriots would leave it 10-6 overall and 7-4 against the AFC. If New England goes undefeated in its next four games, it would be 10-6 overall and 8-3 against the AFC.

Edge: Patriots, who then could have a lot to play for when they visit the Bills in the regular-season finale.

Finishing higher than the sixth seed also remains possible for the Patriots. They technically haven’t been eliminated in the AFC East race. But doing so would require help from other teams, whereas New England needs zero help to secure at least the sixth seed.

Is any of this likely? Probably not. You could make a better argument for the Patriots losing their next five games and missing the playoffs entirely. Bill Belichick’s team is average at best and hasn’t played like a group worthy of a spot in the postseason.

But maybe Belichick and the Patriots have a run in them. You never know.

That said, none of this will matter if New England falls on its face Sunday night in Arzona. The Patriots must start with a win over the lowly Cardinals and go from there.