Madison Bumgarner To Red Sox? Evaluating Idea After Diamondbacks DFA Pitcher
Bumgarner once was an elite pitcher with the Giants
The Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment.
This means the veteran left-hander likely will become a free agent after clearing waivers — no team will want to absorb the roughly $34 million remaining on his contract — and thus available to sign with any team at the prorated major-league minimum.
Should the Boston Red Sox consider signing Bumgarner?
In short, no. While Bumgarner boasts an impressive big-league résumé that includes four All-Star selections and three World Series titles, the 33-year-old simply isn’t the pitcher he was earlier in his career with the San Francisco Giants. And the Red Sox have better internal options in their continued quest to find stability on the mound.
First, peep the surface numbers since Bumgarner signed a five-year, $85 million contract with the D-Backs before the 2020 season: 69 starts, 15-32 record, 5.23 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.379 WHIP and 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Those aren’t good, and a look under the hood isn’t any more encouraging. According to Baseball Savant, Bumgarner’s fastball averaged just 89.5 mph in four starts this season, a drop from the 91.2 mph he averaged across 30 starts last season and his 92.7 mph peak from 2014 and 2015.
It’s tough to live with fourth-percentile fastball velocity when its spin ranks in the 37th percentile, as is the case for Bumgarner in 2023. Hitters have consistently made hard contact against Bumgarner in recent years. This season, he ranks in the 19th percentile in barrel rate, the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 46th percentile in average exit velocity.
He’s no longer missing bats, either. And he now issues far too many free passes, a troubling trend for someone who used to post elite strikeout-to-walk ratios during his heyday. Among 150 starters with at least 10 innings pitched this season, Bumgarner ranks 145th in strikeout rate (11.1%) and 146th in walk rate (16.7%), both of which would be career-worst marks by a significant margin.
Someone might sign Bumgarner once he inevitably reaches free agency, in the hopes he somehow turns back the clock. After all, there was a time when Bumgarner was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, finishing among the top nine in National League Cy Young voting four straight seasons from 2013 to 2016. Plus, his postseason track record — which includes a World Series MVP in 2014 — is impeccable.
There are just too many red flags to fully endorse the Red Sox adding him to their rotation mix, though, even with Boston entering Thursday with the third-worst starting pitcher ERA (6.78) in MLB. Garrett Whitlock recently returned. Brayan Bello is back. James Paxton is on the mend. Adding those three starters to a mix that already included Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck means the Red Sox have plenty of bodies. And that’s without mentioning Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski — two starters-turned-relievers — and the next wave of starting pitchers available at Triple-A Worcester, a group that includes Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy.
The news of Bumgarner being DFA’d might’ve raised some eyebrows, based on name recognition. But this is 2023. There shouldn’t be much interest beyond a quick peek to see why he struggled so much in the desert after such an illustrious 11-year run in the Bay Area.
