What Analytics Now Say About Patriots’ Chances For No. 1 Pick

As bad as Sunday’s loss to the New York Giants was, it was a big-picture triumph for the Patriots.

New England’s 2024 NFL Draft standing increased on multiple fronts over the course of Week 12. And ESPN’s draft analytics, shared weekly by Seth Walder, agree.

After Week 10, the Patriots had a projected draft slot of 5.4 along with a 4.8% chance of landing the first overall pick. After Week 11, the projected pick remained at 5.4 but the top-pick percentage slightly increased to 5.2%, good for fourth-best in the NFL.

However, New England saw big gains in both areas over the weekend. According to Walder, the Patriots now have a projected draft slot of 3.8 and a top-pick percentage of 9.8%, third-best in the league.

With six games left on the schedule, there still is a lot that could happen. For all we know, the Patriots somehow will win a game or two and sink to the bottom of the top 10.

But if New England loses out, it’s guaranteed to finish with no worse than the third overall pick. The Patriots then might be able to select Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Marvin Harrison — or field proposals for a blockbuster trade.

Obviously, the Patriots would rather be winning games and pushing for a playoff spot. But there’s a significant silver lining to all this losing, and it’s getting shinier by the week.