What ESPN Analytics Say About Patriots’ Chances For No. 1 Draft Pick

The current 2024 NFL Draft order says the Patriots are on the cusp of holding the No. 1 overall pick. After all, after Sunday’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts, they now own the No. 3 selection.

But the calculator tells a different story.

ESPN’s Seth Walder on Monday shared the projected draft slots for the six teams currently at the top of the board, along with the percentage chances of each team landing the No. 1 pick. Walder used information provided by ESPN’s analytics department.

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Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers)
Projected draft slot: 2.5
Top-pick percentage: 39.3%

New York Giants
Projected draft slot: 2.4
Top-pick percentage: 38.4%

Arizona Cardinals
Projected draft slot: 3.8
Top-pick percentage: 12.0%

New England Patriots
Projected draft slot: 5.4
Top-pick percentage: 4.8%

Chicago Bears
Projected draft slot: 7.0
Top-pick percentage: 2.5%

Green Bay Packers
Projected draft slot: 9.4
Top-pick percentage: 1.2%

Obviously, things could change in the weeks ahead. And a lot is riding on the Nov. 26 matchup between the Patriots and Giants at MetLife Stadium.

However, Walder’s stats probably don’t account for the biggest variable in play: Kyler Murray’s return. Murray made his season debut Sunday and led the Cardinals to a comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons. He should increase Arizona’s chances of winning games the rest of the season, which would help New England’s draft hopes.

Nevertheless, the Patriots still face long odds in their potential quest for top quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.