How Cardinals’ Stunning Upset Helped Patriots’ Draft Positioning

A top-two draft pick might be in play for the Patriots after all.

The Arizona Cardinals’ 35-31 road upset of the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, coupled with New England’s 27-21 defeat in Buffalo, briefly bumped the Patriots from fourth to second in the 2024 NFL Draft order. Subsequent results impacting their strength of schedule moved them down to third.

Here was the updated top five after Sunday’s early-afternoon slate, via Tankathon:

1. Chicago Bears (via 2-14 Carolina Panthers; .520 strength of schedule)
2. Washington Commanders (4-12; .520 SOS)
3. New England Patriots (4-12; .520 SOS)
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12; .567 SOS)
5. New York Giants (5-11; .511 SOS)

It’s important to note that this order could change as early as Sunday evening, as games in the late-afternoon window also will impact the Patriots’ and Commanders’ strength of schedule. Opponent’s winning percentage is the No. 1 draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower SOS receiving the higher pick.

A loss to the New York Jets in next Sunday’s season finale, however, would guarantee the Patriots at least a top-three pick, as the SOS gap between them and the Cardinals is too wide to close in one week.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. are widely considered the top three prospects in this year’s draft class, and the Patriots have clear needs at both positions.

The only draft slot locked in entering Week 18 is No. 1 overall, as the Panthers clinched the NFL’s worst record with a 26-0 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Carolina traded its top pick to Chicago, so the Bears will be on the clock first.