How These Week 16 Results Affected Patriots’ Draft Order

Before the Patriots took on the Denver Broncos on Christmas Eve, two other Week 16 games directly impacted their 2024 draft outlook.

Neither broke in New England’s favor.

The Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders both were unable to complete unlikely second-half comebacks in Sunday’s early window, losing to the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets, respectively, on late field goals.

Carolina’s 33-30 defeat dropped the last-place Panthers to 2-13 and strengthened their odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, which they traded to the Chicago Bears last offseason.

Had the Panthers won for the second consecutive week, the 3-11 Patriots might have had an opportunity to take over the top spot in the draft order with a loss to Denver on Sunday night, depending on how the strength of schedule tiebreaker shook out.

New England entered Sunday with a .523 SOS to Carolina’s .517, according to Tankathon. If two teams finish with identical records, the team with the lower opponent’s winning percentage would receive the higher draft pick.

Washington, meanwhile, erased a 20-point halftime deficit after benching quarterback Sam Howell for former Patriots backup Jacoby Brissett. But a 54-yard field goal by Greg Zierlein with five seconds remaining allowed the Jets to escape with a 30-28 win.

A Commanders win would have boosted the Patriots’ chances of securing a top-three draft pick — and, in turn, the guaranteed opportunity to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye or Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Instead, at 4-11, Washington now might be able to leapfrog New England if the Patriots win in primetime, again depending on the ever-changing strength of schedule.

Patriots higher-ups also will be closely watching the Cardinals-Bears game in the late-afternoon window. Arizona owned the No. 3 pick entering Sunday, with New England in the No. 2 spot thanks to an SOS tiebreaker.

Here’s how the top four looked after the early games:

1. Bears (via 2-13 Panthers; .518 SOS)
2. Patriots (3-11; .522 SOS)
3. Cardinals (3-11; .565 SOS)
4. Commanders (4-11; .523 SOS)

Patriots-Broncos is scheduled to kick off from Empower Field in Denver at 8:15 p.m. ET. It’s the third-to-last game of the season for the long-eliminated Pats, who will finish off at Buffalo in Week 17 and home against the Jets in Week 18.