Why Jets-Dolphins Game Could Be Huge For Patriots’ Draft Outlook

There still is a lot that can happen to the Patriots and their positioning atop the 2024 NFL Draft board. But when you strip away all the tank math, two simple facts remain:

1. If New England loses the rest of its games, it’s guaranteed a top-three pick.
2. If the Patriots win one or zero games, they’re guaranteed a top-four pick.

If you’re someone who would prefer New England to continue losing and earn a chance to draft quarterbacks Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, you want the Patriots to lose their four remaining games. The question then becomes: Where are the potential victories for a team that’s 3-10 and currently owns the No. 2 pick?

While nothing is certain in the NFL, let’s assume the Patriots lose Sunday’s home game to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Week 17 road game against the Buffalo Bills. That leaves next Sunday’s road matchup against the Denver Broncos and the season finale against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. In the pursuit of a top-four pick, the Patriots could be inviting a lot of trouble by winning those two games.

Of the two, the Jets matchup feels far more winnable, and New England probably will be favored. The Patriots won their last 15 games against New York, and Zach Wilson might get the start. It’s also fair to wonder whether New England’s players will play with greater pride in what could be the final game for Bill Belichick.

But everything could change if the Jets somehow score a road win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

First of all, a victory would give New York six wins and cause it to fall down the draft board. With the Jets also looking for a new franchise QB to develop, the Patriots want their AFC East rivals as far away from the top of the board as possible.

However, this is all about Aaron Rodgers.

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The superstar quarterback will be medically cleared to play next week, according to multiple reports. But Rodgers, who tore his Achilles in the season opener, likely won’t return if the Jets are out of playoff contention. And the Jets shouldn’t put him at risk in meaningless games.

So, a win against Miami could fully open the door for Rodgers to return to game action in Week 16. And although its record could dictate whether New York plays Rodgers over the final two weeks, there at least would be a chance of the 40-year-old QB suiting up against the Patriots in Week 18.

It would be hard to pick any Jets team against Belichick. But you’d have to side with Rodgers and New York’s elite defense against a very bad Patriots team.

It’s not a stretch to say that a loss in that game could mean the difference between picking second overall and anywhere from third to seventh. And if New England sinks down the draft board, it might not be able to land its next franchise quarterback.

Keep an eye on Sunday’s Jets-Dolphins game. It could be sneaky-important for the future of the Patriots.