MLB Executives Project Free Agency Price For Potential Red Sox Target

The Boston Red Sox have been linked to Shōta Imanaga this Major League Baseball offseason, but the price to sign the Japanese pitcher in free agency could be higher than initially expected.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Imanaga would land a five-year, $85 million contract. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projected a four-year, $68 million deal. Those numbers now look low.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported Wednesday that MLB executives expect Imanaga to secure a contract worth at least $100 million.

The potential increase seemingly is related to the massive paydays the Los Angeles Dodgers gave Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

"On the heels of Ohtani's heavily deferred $700 million deal and Yamamoto's $325 million contract, executives told ESPN Imanaga is likely to reach nine figures as well," Passan wrote. "In the past, players of Imanaga's talent and production didn't sniff $100 million-plus. Perhaps his closest comparable, lefty Yusei Kikuchi, threw 1,010⅔ innings compared to Imanaga's 1,002⅔, and his 2.77 career ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball was far better than Imanaga's 3.18. Kikuchi got $56 million over four years from Seattle before the 2019 season. The rate will nearly double for Imanaga."

Imanaga isn't in the same stratosphere as either Ohtani, a two-way superstar, or Yamamoto, a 25-year-old joining MLB with ace-like upside. But he's in the next tier of free agent starting pitchers -- below Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom are still available -- and represents a possible mid-rotation arm.

Imanaga, a 30-year-old left-hander, had an excellent track record in Japan, boasts an intriguing repertoire and isn't attached to draft-pick compensation, all of which make him an appealing option in free agency.

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The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal also wrote the buzz among agents and executives Wednesday was that Imanaga is poised to receive a contract of at least $100 million, and it'll be interesting to see how that affects his overall market. Which team is willing to roll the dice?

"Three teams in need of starters -- the Mets, Yankees and Orioles -- are not expected to be involved in the bidding," Rosenthal wrote. "But the Red Sox, Giants and other teams are believed to be in the mix."

Imanaga's 45-day posting window expires Jan. 11. According to Rosenthal, no one in the industry expects the southpaw to return to his Japanese team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, so we should know within the next week which MLB franchise Imanaga will join ahead of the 2024 season.