New England currently owns the third pick
There’s a lot that still can happen to the Patriots and their positioning in the 2024 NFL Draft. Depending on what happens this weekend, New England could finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the draft order.
You can click here for a full breakdown of all the variables in play. But, for now, let’s focus on the second overall pick — which could provide a new franchise quarterback — and the simplest path toward the Patriots claiming it.
First, here’s the updated top seven with one week left on the 2023 schedule:
(Note: Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick.)
1. Chicago Bears, via 2-14 Carolina Panthers (.518 SOS)
2. Washington Commanders, 4-12 (.515 SOS)
3. New England Patriots, 4-12 (.518 SOS)
4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12 (.562 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-11 (.511 SOS)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 9.526 SOS)
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-11 (.529 SOS)
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There’s a world in which the Patriots beat the New York Jets on Sunday and still finish with the second pick. But that would require the Cardinals and Commanders beating the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. New England, which already has clinched the SOS tiebreaker over Arizona, also would land the No. 2 pick with a loss to New York coupled with a Commanders victory.
However, those scenarios are messy and unlikely. The cleanest and likeliest path to the No. 2 pick features the Patriots losing to the Jets, the Commanders losing to the Cowboys and New England benefitting from the following results around the league:
— Baltimore Ravens BEAT Pittsburgh Steelers
— Houston Texans BEAT Indianapolis Colts
— Atlanta Falcons BEAT New Orleans Saints
— Chicago Bears BEAT Green Bay Packers
— Denver Broncos BEAT Las Vegas Raiders
Each of those outcomes would lower the Patriots’ strength of schedule and/or raise the Commanders’ SOS — both of which would help New England. The Patriots don’t need all of those games to break their way, but a clean sweep would lock up the No. 2 pick.
Of the five games, the Falcons-Saints matchup is the one worth watching. An Atlanta victory would be extra beneficial for the Patriots, as the Commanders played the Falcons earlier this season whereas New England played the Saints. So, a Falcons win would simultaneously raise Washington’s SOS while lowering New England’s.
Thankfully, we only have to do draft math for another week. By next Monday, we’ll know the Patriots’ draft fate — and, perhaps, the fate of Bill Belichick.