Everything To Know About Patriots Draft Outlook With One Week Left

Through 17 weeks, there’s a lot we know about the Patriots and their positioning in the 2024 NFL Draft, but also much that we don’t know.

New England no longer can claim the first overall pick, which was clinched Sunday by the Carolina Panthers, who will send it to the Chicago Bears. But the Patriots, who currently own the third pick, still can finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7.

The Patriots got some help Sunday when the Cardinals scored a road upset over the Philadelphia Eagles. That result, along with New England’s road loss to the Buffalo Bills, ensured the Patriots will be guaranteed a top-three pick if they lose to the Jets this Sunday.

But anything could happen if New England beats New York at Gillette Stadium. In fact, there’s a world in which the Patriots beat the Jets but still finish with the No. 2 pick.

Here’s the current top seven via Tankathon:

(Note: Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-14 Carolina Panthers (.518 SOS)
2. Washington Commanders, 4-12 (.515 SOS)
3. New England Patriots, 4-12 (.518 SOS)
4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12 (.562 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-11 (.511 SOS)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 9.526 SOS)
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-11 (.529 SOS)

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Here are a few things to keep in mind as we begin Week 18:

— The Patriots are guaranteed to win an SOS tiebreaker over Arizona, which will host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18.

— The SOS gap between New England and Washington, which will host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, is negligible. The Patriots absolutely could finish ahead of the Commanders if the two teams finish with the same record.

— Strength of schedule is based on the combined winning percentages of all opponents on a team’s schedule. So, Patriots fans should want each team New England played this season to lose in Week 18.

— The second and third draft-order tiebreakers are divisional and conference records. If those don’t apply, it goes to head-to-head, which New England owns over the Commanders, Giants and Chargers.

— In addition to Washington, the Giants are the other team Patriots fans should worry about. New York currently has a decent SOS edge over New England, though it’s not insurmountable. Finishing one spot behind the quarterback-needy Giants could mean the difference between the Patriots drafting LSU QB Jayden Daniels and selecting a tackle, or something.

— As for the Chargers and Titans, New England has a solid SOS edge over both teams. However, it wouldn’t take much for those gaps to close. Again, none of that will matter if the Patriots simply lose to the Jets.

— If you’re focused on the Commanders, these are the Week 18 results that would most help the Patriots:

Baltimore Ravens BEAT Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans BEAT Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons BEAT New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears BEAT Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos BEAT Las Vegas Raiders

— That Falcons-Saints game is the one to keep an eye on. We’ll spare you the draft math, but just know a Falcons win alone could propel the Patriots ahead of the Commanders.

Got all that?

Given how bad the Jets are, how surprisingly spunky the Patriots are and how motivated they could be by the Bill Belichick-hot seat chatter, the most likely outcome might be New England finishing behind the Giants in the fifth spot. That said, New York will host Philadelphia on Sunday, and an upset can’t be ruled out with how poorly the Eagles are playing.

So, sit back, relax and try to enjoy your week before a potentially franchise-altering Sunday arrives.