Genesis Invitational Picks: Tiger Woods Tries To Defy Odds In PGA Tour Return

The Tiger Woods effect will be felt on the PGA Tour this weekend with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club for the first time in a long time.

Not only will the Tour’s stop in Los Angeles represent the latest designated event — with a star-studded field playing for a $20 million purse — but it’s also the on-course return of Woods (and his new look), who hasn’t played an official PGA Tour event since the Masters last year where he withdrew after three rounds. His last full, four-round Tour event came here — the tournament he hosts — a year ago.

Based on the odds, expectations for Woods are unsurprisingly low. It’s a 70-player field but is only one of three signature events on the calendar to feature a cut. The low 50 and/or players within 10 shots of the 36-hole lead will make the weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook isn’t even offering a cut/no-cut market. Woods is +350 to finish in the top 20, longer odds than the likes of Taylor Moore, Patrick Rodgers, Andrew Putnam and Brendon Todd. Woods is 9-1 to finish in the top 10, and he’s as high as 220-1 to win the whole thing.

Kind of tempting, no?

Let’s get into our Genesis Invitational picks with all odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

GENESIS INVITATIONAL
Course: Riviera Country Club
Defending champion: Jon Rahm
Favorites: Scottie Scheffler (+650), Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Notes: One of the oldest courses on Tour with a variety of signature holes, like the first, sixth, 10th and 18th. … Plays as a par-71 at more than 7,300 yards, a number that probably plays even longer when accounting for the short par-4 10th that presents its own challenges. … Driving distance is probably the most important trait, and if you aren’t long off the tee, you better be aces with your long irons. Short game is also paramount with difficult-to-hit greens.

First-round leader: Collin Morikawa (+2500)
He hasn’t finished worse than sixth here in his last two starts, and that includes a clinical performance in 2022 that probably would have earned him the trophy if Joaquin Niemann hadn’t gone 63-63 to start his week. He finished sixth last year and was in the hunt from Round 1. He’s also a combined 9-under in his last first two rounds at Riviera, and he has made a habit of starting quick this season, with a 66 Round 1 scoring average in three starts; last season, he was 11th in first-round scoring for the year.

Top 20: Wyndham Clark top 20 (+130)
Not exactly a bomb here, but it feels like plus-money on a major champion like Clark for a top-20 placement won’t be around much longer. Surely, a return to Los Angeles — where he won the U.S. Open last year — brings back some good vibes for Clark. That win came at Los Angeles Country Club, a track designed by George Thomas, who also happened to design Rivieria. He has some success here, too, with a pair of top-20 finishes in 2020 and 2021. One bad putting round last year probably cost him a top-20. The distance off the tee is a must here, and his ability to get hot with the putter (see: Pebble Beach) could allow him to get within that top-20 number at any point in the weekend.

Top 10: Will Zalatoris (+400)
Again, not a huge number, but it’s also probably a number we won’t see much longer in tournaments that Zalatoris plays. It looks like he’s, well, back, after missing most of last season with a back injury. After shaking off the rust with a miserable performance in Hawaii at the Sony, he has improved each start since, in terms of finishing place and strokes gained. The putter is always an issue with Zalatoris, but if there’s one surface he performs “well” on, it’s Poa. There’s also the idea that on a course like this where everyone struggles on the green, especially from close, the playing field might be evened a little bit, and his biggest flaw might not cost him an entire tournament.

Winner: Max Homa (+2000)
Right back to the Homa well after picking him at Pebble Beach — only to see him finish outside the top 65. He also missed the cut last week in Phoenix, so form is a bit of an issue. But you’re getting him at longer odds here than you did at Pebble, and it’s on a golf course and at a tournament he adores. The LA native has finished fifth, first, 10th and second over his last four starts at Riviera. He’s a Poa specialist, too, who has excelled at those short putts that are so critical in this tournament.