Paul Skenes For Cy Young? How High Is Ace’s Ceiling In 2024?

There’s less than a week before the MLB All-Star Game, but there’s no denying that Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes has been the talk of the sport in the first half of the season.

It’s hard to fathom, but Skenes has only been a professional baseball player for a year. The Pirates took him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, and a year later, he should be a candidate to start the 2024 All-Star Game for the National League.

Skenes’ ascension to the top of the sport is undeniable. Going into his start Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers, the right-hander was an overwhelming -350 favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Only Bryan Reynolds has a higher wins above replacement (Baseball-Reference) on the Pirates’ roster, and Skenes didn’t make his big league debut until May 11. Since then, he has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball, going 5-0 in his first 10 starts; the Pirates went 7-3 in games where Skenes took the ball. He is striking out opponents at a historic rate, fanning 78 of the 232 batters he has faced.

That got NESN.com’s Mike Cole thinking: Could Skenes be a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young Award? Skenes’ current standing at 50-1 jumps off the page at FanDuel Sportsbook, but whether he could legitimately put himself into the conversation is very much up for debate.

Cole’s cohost on “The Spread” podcast, NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle, is skeptical — even at such a tempting number.

“Can he get enough innings, you think?” Cole asked.

“That’s my thing. I don’t know if the innings are going to be there,” Doyle replied. ” … I think they’ll probably cap him at about 150, 160, right? I think you’re going to get some extra days off here and there.

” … No, I really don’t have the appetite for it.”

Entering Thursday’s game in Milwaukee, the Pirates had 70 games left on their schedule. If Skenes made each of his remaining starts — and that’s a big “if” — he’d probably be looking at another 14 starts at most. If he were to log, say, six innings per start, that still only gets him to 140 innings or so.

No starter has logged fewer than 175 innings and won the Cy Young Award outside of seasons shortened by pandemic or work stoppages. Justin Verlander won the award in 2022 with that 175-inning mark, going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA while striking out 185 batters. Maybe if Skenes comes anywhere near that he might have the slightest bit of a chance, but even then, he’d probably have to be better than Verlander.

Can he do it? Probably not. Will he do it? Almost certainly not. It is a 50-1 long shot, after all.

Listen to the latest episode of “The Spread” podcast in the Spotify player below.