U.S. Women’s Soccer Favored to Win Summer Olympics Over World Cup Champion Japan

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Jul 24, 2012

U.S. Women's Soccer Favored to Win Summer Olympics Over World Cup Champion JapanThe U.S. women's team will be the defending champions and favorites when soccer starts at the 2012 Olympic Summer Games.

Even so, the U.S. heads into the tournament on a sour note after falling short in the 2010 World Cup, where the team suffered an excruciating defeat to Japan in penalty kicks. The good news is that the U.S. captured gold in 2004 and 2008, one year after failing in the World Cup both times.

The U.S. has 7-4 odds to win the women's soccer gold this year, followed by Brazil at 7-2, World Cup champion Japan at 5-1, France and Sweden at 9-1 and Great Britain at 10-1.

Canada (20-1), North Korea (25-1), New Zealand (66-1), Cameroon (80-1), Colombia (80-1) and South Africa are longer shots.

The U.S. will need to rely on key veterans who have been in big games before. That means goalkeeper Hope Solo will have to play well, like she did in last year's run to the Cup final, and Abby Wambach, who missed the '08 games, will need to come up big.

The good news is that the old guard is joined by a good young cast. Wambach will be joined by scoring sensation Alex Morgan, who has 17 goals in 15 games for the U.S. this year. That tandem of strikers will be backed by an excellent midfield that includes Megan Rapinoe

But the games are not played out on paper, and the Americans will have plenty to contend with — including an arduous travel schedule that could wear them down a bit by the time they reach London. On the field, they'll have to deal with Brazil and Japan, each of which have finished better than the Americans in recent World Cups (Japan in 2011, Brazil in 2007). They do catch a break, however, as Germany, which has won two of the last three World Cups, is shockingly not in the tournament.

The Japanese team still isn't getting the respect it deserves, both abroad and at home. The men's team is flying to London first-class while the women will be sitting in coach. But they'll be counted on to perform on the field after their 2011 World Cup win, which was their first over the U.S. in 26 tries. While attendance and interest in the team spiked considerably with that run, skeptics wonder if this will again be a forgotten team if it gives a weak effort in the 2012 Games. 

Japan's Homare Sowa is still one of the best players in the world, and she's backed by Aya Miyama and Azusa Iwashimizu, who make Japan a serious contender. They'll once again aim to use everyone's doubt as fuel.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian team will be one to be reckoned with. Led by Marta, the five-time player of the year, the Brazilian squad is very hungry this time around. Some people wonder whether the players are past their prime, but that could be a mistake. Marta hasn't won Olympic gold or a World Cup in five tries, and that could be exactly what charges her — and the team — up for a serious run in 2012. 

If it's not the aforementioned three teams taking gold, don't be surprised if the French side is making a run. Louisa Necib and her teammates showed much improvement in the 2011 World Cup, and they're going to be a dangerous team to face. 

The first Olympic event including Americans will be the U.S. versus France two days before the opening ceremonies, and it will be litmus test for both sides. That contest is Wednesday at 12 p.m. ET.