There’s no need to mess around, Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and we’ve got your against-the-spread picks.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are here to give you their take on each and every game on this weekend’s slate.
Before they do that, though, here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 9-6 (44-46-2 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 7-8 (43-47-2)
Andre Khatchaturian: 7-8 (44-46-2)
Here are their Week 7 picks with lines courtesy of OddsShark.
THURSDAY, OCT. 18
(-1.5) Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Cardinals. For starters, home underdogs are 20-8 against the spread this season. Also, Denver’s run defense has been woeful (5.6 yards per carry allowed, last in the NFL), so I’m expecting a big game from David Johnson.
Ricky: Broncos. The Cardinals have yet to gain 300 yards in a game this season. Moving the football in the right direction continues to be an issue, let alone scoring points.
Andre: Broncos. Arizona has the second-worst yards per play differential in the NFL. The Broncos have lost four in a row, but two of those losses were against the Rams and Chiefs. No, Denver isn’t going to beat the world beaters, but they can handle an Arizona team that ranks second-to-last in yards per play.
SUNDAY, OCT. 21
Tennessee Titans vs. (-6.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 9:30 a.m. (in London)
Mike: Titans. This is probably weird rationale, but I just feel better about Mike Vrabel’s ability to get his team ready for a London game than I do about Anthony Lynn’s — especially when the Chargers are a West Coast team playing at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Ricky: Chargers. What happened to Tennessee’s once-solid offensive line? The Titans have the NFL’s second-worst opponent sack percentage after surrendering 11 sacks to the Ravens last week, and things won’t get any easier against the Chargers just because they’re playing in a different country.
Andre: Chargers. The Chargers have the second-best yards per play differential in football. Philip Rivers is finally getting the help he’s rarely received over the years. Melvin Gordon is fourth in yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns. The Chargers’ offensive line has only conceded eight sacks. They’re also fourth in turnover differential. Also, can we just stop and marvel at the fact that Rivers has a passer rating of 116 WHEN HE’S UNDER PRESSURE, according to PFF. (17 points higher than anyone else.)
Buffalo Bills at (-7.5) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Gotta live a little sometimes.
Ricky: Colts. Derek Anderson is starting for the Bills this week. DEREK ANDERSON! He actually might be an upgrade over Nathan Peterman, who stinks to the heavens, but it’s hard to have faith in a 35-year-old quarterback who signed less than two weeks ago and has started just four games since the 2010 season.
Andre: Colts. The Bills are averaging 3.7 yards per play this season. That’s the lowest mark since the 1992 Seahawks averaged 3.6 yards per play and finished 2-14. The Colts have a solid pass rush this season and are third in sacks and the Bills have allowed the third-most sacks this year.
Carolina Panthers at (-5) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. PFF says Cam Newton has a miserable 24.8 passer rating under pressure, which makes a matchup with arguably the NFL’s pass rush a date with disaster.
Ricky: Eagles. The Panthers lost to the Redskins last week because Washington controlled the line of scrimmage. Well, few teams, if any, can control the line of scrimmage quite like the Eagles. Newton and Co. will break out some read options, but Philadelphia is well-equipped to handle that type of offensive attack.
Andre: Eagles. These two teams met last year. Philadelphia was successful in stopping the run as it allowed only 16 rushing yards from Carolina running backs. As a result, Newton threw the ball a career-high 52 times and Philly won. When he throws the ball 39 or more times in a game throughout his career, he is 3-12-1.
Cleveland Browns at (-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. The Browns defense has been a bit of an issue, giving up 475 yards per game in their last three. I’m not a big Jameis Winston guy, but there are weapons around him, and the Tampa offense should have its way with them here.
Ricky: Browns. The Bucs are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and just fired their defensive coordinator. I’m still not sold on the Browns, but I’d like to see Tampa Bay do something positive before I start putting my eggs back in that basket.
Andre: Browns. Cleveland is first in the NFL in turnover differential, while Tampa Bay is third-to-last. Opposing quarterbacks have also completed an NFL-high 77 percent of their passes against the Bucs.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Brock Osweiler was great last week, but can he do it two weeks in a row? I lean toward no. Also, this is very random, but the Lions are 5-1 ATS after a bye since 2012.
Ricky: Dolphins. The Lions aren’t the train wreck they were in Weeks 1 and 2. They’ve sandwiched a last-second loss to the Cowboys with wins over the Patriots and Packers. But Detroit’s defense still is weak by nearly every measure. The Dolphins will ride their rushing attack to victory in Ryan Tannehill’s absence.
Andre: Dolphins. Miami leads the league in interceptions, but also is third in average drive start and second in yards per kick return. Helping the Dolphins is the fact that Detroit has allowed 26.4 yards per kick return, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Y’all think I’m crazy for citing kick return stats, but in a game with two evenly matched teams and the home team getting points, it might be the difference.
Houston Texans at (-5) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. Look for this one to be decided in the red zone, where Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson has an unsightly 37.8 passer rating and has been sacked seven times. Now, he gets the NFL’s third-best home red-zone defense.
Ricky: Jaguars. The Texans aren’t as good as their three-game winning streak suggests, and the Jaguars aren’t as bad as their two-game losing streak suggests. Jacksonville’s pass rush will tee off on Houston’s offensive line, and the Jaguars’ offense will be good enough upon returning home, where Blake Bortles usually sucks a little less.
Andre: Jaguars. Bortles is much better at home than on the road. Since the start of last year, he has completed 65 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and seven picks, compared to nine touchdowns and 14 picks on the road.
(-3) Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Trap game with a home underdog; sign me up! Minnesota might get caught looking ahead to New Orleans next week, and if it does, the Jets are plucky enough to take advantage.
Ricky: Vikings. Don’t look now, but Minnesota’s defense is finding its stride. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFL, including the Jets, who have won two straight but still deploy a rookie QB and therefore are susceptible to occasional mistakes.
Andre: Vikings. The Jets have been great at forcing turnovers, but Kirk Cousins is careful with the football with only three interceptions this season. Minnesota also ranks first in third-down defense and second in red zone defense, which is impressive considering they’ve already played the Rams, Eagles and Packers this year.
(-3) New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. No one targets the running backs in the passing games more than the Patriots, and the Bears have been dynamite at defending running backs both on the ground (3.9 YPC) and through the air (just eight catches on 18 targets) this season. If they take that away from the Patriots, the pass rush should be disruptive enough to keep it within the number, if not win outright.
Ricky: Bears. Chicago’s defense has been dominant at times, but the offense could be just as problematic for New England. The Bears have a couple of versatile weapons in running back Tarik Cohen and wide receiver Taylor Gabriel who could mirror the success the Chiefs’ playmakers — namely running back Kareem Hunt and wide receiver Tyreek Hill — had in last week’s shootout at Gillette Stadium. After all, Chicago head coach Matt Nagy was Kansas City’s offensive coordinator last season when the Chiefs hung 42 points on the Patriots in Week 1.
Andre: Patriots. Quarterbacks with fewer than 20 games of experience are 0-10 with 10 touchdowns and 11 picks against the Patriots since the start of 2016. Sony Michel will continue to have big games. I don’t care that the Bears have the best rush defense grade on PFF. That grade has been padded because of games against the Bucs (29th in yards per carry) and the Cardinals (32nd). Miami had no problem running against them last week and neither will the Pats.
New Orleans Saints at (-2.5) Baltimore Ravens, 4:05 p.m
Mike: Ravens. The good news for New Orleans is Sean Payton is 6-2 straight-up after the bye in his last eight seasons. The bad news? The two losses came on the road. Let’s make it three in a row, against a Baltimore team happy to be home for the first time since Sept. 23.
Ricky: Saints. Is Baltimore’s defense really as good as the numbers suggest? Probably not. While the Ravens have an NFL-best 26 sacks, it’s important to note that 17 of those came in two games against the Bills and Titans — two teams whose offensive lines have been terrible this season. The Saints will do a better job of protecting their quarterback, Drew Brees, an all-time great who’s been both very efficient and effective against the blitz.
Andre: Saints. The Saints allow just 3.1 yards per carry. If Baltimore can’t get the run going, Joe Flacco is going to have to throw the ball a ton and that’s never a good recipe for success. The Ravens also aren’t going to get 11 sacks against the Saints, who’ve allowed just eight all year long.
Dallas Cowboys at (-1.5) Washington Redskins, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. I really don’t care, and I do not wish to add any more analysis. Good day.
Ricky: Cowboys. Dallas is coming off its most impressive performance of the season and typically is a good bet in divisional games (6-1 ATS in its last seven games against NFC East opponents). The Redskins, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against NFC East opponents.
Andre: Cowboys. Dak Prescott is undefeated (4-0 with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions) against the Redskins. In the last two weeks, Washington has a -2.0 yards per play differential. Dallas is second in rushing yards this year and will be able to eat the clock and use its suffocating defense (5th in sack percentage, 4th in yards allowed per play) to beat the Redskins.
(-10) Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. San Francisco is 0-3 ATS on short rest since 2014, and I wonder if they’ll have anything left after coming so close to knocking off Green Bay at Lambeau.
Ricky: 49ers. The Niners probably shouldn’t cover this spread, just like they had no business covering a 9.5-point spread against the Packers in Week 6. But they will. Maybe. Who knows?
Andre: 49ers. The Rams win the game, but San Francisco is at home in a divisional game and they have enough defensively to contain Todd Gurley. L.A. also allows the fifth-most yards per carry so I can see Matt Breida having a big game.
Cincinnati Bengals at (-6) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. The injuries are taking a toll on the Bengals, as two key defensive players — Clayton Fejedelem and Carlos Dunlap — are dinged up. It’s hard enough to slow down the Chiefs when healthy, and it will be near-impossible at less than full strength.
Ricky: Chiefs. Cincinnati’s tackling has been spotty. Just go back and watch Antonio Brown’s game-winning touchdown in last week’s Bengals-Steelers AFC North clash. That’ll bite the Bengals in the rear end this week against the Chiefs’ explosive offense. Plus, the Bengals never really show up in primetime, whereas the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS this season.
Andre: Chiefs. Neither team can get off the field defensively. Opponents average a league-high 6.9 plays per drive against the Chiefs. Right behind them are the Bengals (6.5 opposing plays per drive). Something tells me this stat favors the Chiefs’ high-powered offense at home more than it does the Bengals.
MONDAY, OCT. 22
New York Giants at (-5.5) Atlanta Falcons, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Giants. See below for both of the points I already made this week on “The Spread” when I made the Giants my upset pick of the week.
Ricky: Giants. Not to sound like a broken record, but the Falcons’ defense is terrible thanks to a few critical injuries. Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey totaled 14 catches for 102 yards against Atlanta in Week 2 and Saints running back Alvin Kamara racked up 15 catches for 124 yards versus the Falcons in Week 3. That means Saquon Barkley should have, what, about 20 grabs in Week 7?
Andre: Giants. When he’s not pressured, Eli Manning completes 78 percent of his passes compared to 46.3 of his passes when he is pressured, according to PFF. His passer rating is also 50 points higher when he’s kept clean. Guess what? The Falcons rank 29th in sack percentage.
