NFL Week 10 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Sees Bills Letdown In Desert

We got greedy last week. There's no other way to put it.

We were locked in for a solid little three-game best-bet parlay, and in order to make the potential reward even better, we added the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline to the parlay.

At home, in a revenge spot for a must-win divisional game, what could go wrong? Well, the New Orleans Saints are what went wrong. Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career, and the Saints pantsed the Bucs on national TV. After winning the first three legs of the parlay, we were losers.

That's the problem with parlays. Three out of four doesn't get you anything.

The good news? It's a new week. Here's our Week 10 best-bet parlay.

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 49.5 points
For starters, Jake Luton is the Jaguars' starting quarterback, which more or less speaks for itself. Let's just say Patrick Mahomes he is not. So there's that. You also have to figure the Packers think they can win this game pretty easily and aren't going to put a lot of the good stuff on tape, so we're expecting a fairly conservative offensive game plan. Green Bay also plays at the slowest pace in the league, a pace that unsurprisingly slows even more when leading. Weather also is an issue. Forecasts are calling for winds blowing 30 mph and temperatures in the mid-30s. Fun.

(-2.5) Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo Bills
The Bills are feeling good after throttling Seattle a week ago, but it's going to be a tougher test this week, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Cardinals' defense is very good at limiting explosive plays, which is how Buffalo gets a lot of its passing yardage (third in explosive-play pass rate). Arizona ranks 12th in yards per attempt allowed, which to put in perspective, is far better than Seattle which ranks 28th after Buffalo torched them last week. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals dominate time of possession, too. The Bills' run defense is last in the NFL in early-down success rate, which allows their opponents to get into manageable third downs (Buffalo is 23rd in third-down defense). Arizona, meanwhile, ranks fifth in early-down rushing success rate. There's also this: Buffalo is averaging the most penalty yards per game on the road.

(-1.5) Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks
We just talked about how the Bills ate up the Seattle defense; the Rams certainly are positioned to do the same this week. The Seahawks rank 22nd in pressure rate through nine weeks, and if they can't get to Jared Goff, they're going to have a tough time stopping the LA offense. Goff under pressure is a mess; the QB has a 38.9 completion percentage and a woeful 36.7 passer rating. But in Seattle's two losses, especially at Arizona, it struggled to get pressure. When Goff has time to operate, he's got a 114.2 passer rating. It might be that simple. The Rams defense is also far better than Buffalo or Arizona possess. It's a tough matchup for the Seahawks, no matter how good Russell Wilson is.

Payout: $100 to win $595
Record: 1-8 (down $120)