Patriots-Ravens Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 10 Game
Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite
"Sunday Night Football" will feature a primetime matchup between two of the most notable teams in the NFL.
The New England Patriots will welcome Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to Gillette Stadium for a Week 10 clash.
The 3-5 Patriots are coming off a comeback win over the New York Jets, which broke the first four-game losing under head coach Bill Belichick. The 6-2 Ravens are fresh off a Week 9 win over a good Indianapolis Colts team, having only lost to the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers (by four) this season.
The Patriots entered the Week 10 slate in 11th place in the AFC, two games back of the final wild-card spot and 3.5 games behind the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. The Ravens currently are the fifth seed in the playoff picture, the first wild card spot, and two games back of the AFC North-leading Steelers.
Here?s our betting preview for the AFC showdown between the Patriots and Ravens. All lines and props were provided via consensus data.
(-6.5) Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Total: 44
BETTING TRENDS
Despite the stark contrast between the two teams on paper, a mere one game separates their respective against-the-spread records.
Baltimore is 4-4 on the season ATS, covering the line in two of their four away games. New England is 3-5 ATS on the campaign, including an identical home win percentage (2-2) as Baltimore. Notably, the Patriots failed to cover a 9.5-point spread against the winless Jets. Baltimore, on the other hand, easily covered a mere 2.5 points against the Colts last week.
PROPS
First-half line, total
Baltimore -3.5, 21.5
First touchdown scorer
Lamar Jackson +800
Cam Newton +900
Marquise Brown +1050
Mark Andrews +1100
J.K. Dobbins +1400
Jakobi Meyers +1600
Passing yards
Cam Newton over/under 190.5
Lamar Jackson over/under 194.5
Rushing yards
Cam Newton over/under 41.5
Lamar Jackson over/under 52.5
Receiving yards
Jakobi Meyers over/under 51.5
Marquise Brown over/under 44.5
Willie Snead over/under 27.5
Mark Andrews over/under 34.5
Damiere Byrd over/under 31.5
PICK: Baltimore -6.5
Admittedly, 6.5 is a big number, especially with Baltimore going on the road, but we can't look past the Patriots string of recent struggles. I mean, New England needed a walk-off field goal to beat the Jets, and that was after going down by 10 points.
Baltimore is too good on both sides of the ball. It's rushing offense, led by Jackson, ranks first in the league in both attempts and yards while being third in yards-per-attempt. Based on the weather forecasted for Sunday night at Gillette -- low 50s, wind gusts of 15 miles per hour and heavy wind/rain possible in second half, per ESPN's Mike Reiss -- it likely will be a ground-and-pound game. The Patriots have struggled mightily against the run while playing teams who aren't named the Jets.
By no means do we expect it to become a blowout, but the Ravens winning by a touchdown certainly is not out of the question.
