NFL Week 15 Picks: Odds, Analysis And Predictions For Every Game
NFL Saturdays are back!
It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.
The NFL has rounded the final turn and is in a mad dash to the finish line. As if that wasn't good enough, we now get NFL games on Saturday night in addition to Thursday, Sunday and Monday. What a week!
NESN.com's Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are all over it with their weekly against-the-spread picks.
First, here's how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 6-10 (97-106-4 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 9-7 (99-104-4)
Andre Khatchaturian: 9-7 (96-107-4)
Now, here are their Week 15 picks, with all lines via consensus data.
THURSDAY, DEC. 17
Los Angeles Chargers at (-3.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. A change at defensive coordinator in Vegas won't make the difference, at least not this week, with four defensive starters to miss Thursday night's game.
Ricky: Chargers. Still not convinced the Raiders are any good, largely because they're so bad defensively. The Chargers might not win outright -- they'll probably do something stupid at the end -- but Los Angeles' playmakers (namely Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler) will be difficult for Las Vegas to slow down.
Andre: Chargers. Although the Chargers aren't good at running the football, they do it often. They average just 3.8 yards per carry but rank ninth in rush attempts. If they stick to that formula, they should be successful against the Raiders, who allow the third-most yards per carry. The Raiders also have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert should be dealing with very little pressure and will be able to succeed.
SATURDAY, DEC. 19
(-6.5) Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. The Bills' biggest strength is their passing game, while Denver's strength is its pass defense. If the Broncos can even slow down Josh Allen a little, they should have enough weapons to keep it close against a leaky Buffalo pass defense.
Ricky: Broncos. The Bills are due for a letdown, no? A trip to Denver on a short week could provide just the recipe, as long as the Broncos' offensive line keeps the pocket clean for Drew Lock.
Andre: Broncos. I love Denver getting this many points at home against a popular pick like the Bills. The Broncos' pass defense allows the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and is ranked fourth in coverage on Pro Football Focus. That should be enough to mitigate Allen's impact and keep this one close.
Carolina Panthers at (-8.5) Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Packers. By EPA allowed per dropback, Carolina ranks 28th and 27th in opponent dropback success rate. Drew Lock entered last week's game with a 67.1 passer rating and went on to complete 21 of 27 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns for a 149.5 passer rating. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers will do.
Ricky: Panthers. Green Bay often struggles to put away opponents, evidenced by last week's seven-point win over the Lions in which the Packers didn't cover. The Panthers, meanwhile, are scrappy underdogs, going 6-3 ATS in that role this season. Teddy Bridgewater is 23-6 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Andre: Panthers. The Panthers have the eighth-most expected points contributed by a rushing offense, according to Pro Football Reference, and they go up against a Packers rush defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry. Carolina is a respectable team despite its record. It has a positive yards per play differential and seven of its nine losses were by one possession.
SUNDAY, DEC. 20
(-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. I'm skeptical the bye week fixed all of the Bucs' issues. Tampa's defense has allowed 430 yards per game in its last three contests and probably would have been the reason for a loss last week if Minnesota could kick a field goal. The advanced metrics (mainly EPA) quietly show Atlanta as one of the NFL's top defenses the last five weeks.
Ricky: Falcons. We've seen regression from Tampa Bay's defense in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense has shown improvement since Dan Quinn's dismissal. Feels like a good value play to take the home team and the points for a divisional matchup that's been controlled by the Falcons over the past few years.
Andre: Bucs. Atlanta averages 3.7 yards per carry -- the third-lowest mark in the NFL -- and is going up against the league's best rush defense. Expect the Falcons to be predictable in this game, with Matt Ryan, who is third in the NFL in pass attempts, throwing the ball a ton. The Bucs shouldn't have a problem moving the ball downfield against a Falcons defense that allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-13.5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Baltimore typically has fared well as big favorites, going 4-3-1 ATS as favorites of 10 points or more since the start of last season and winning those games by an average of 16 points. Hard to see Jacksonville slowing them.
Ricky: Ravens. Monday night's dramatic win in Cleveland feels exactly like the type of game that could propel the Ravens toward a deep playoff run, especially since they have an opportunity to beat up on the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals over the final three weeks.
Andre: Ravens. Jacksonville's rush defense has been exposed against some elite running attacks over the last three weeks. The Jags allowed 200-plus yards in losses to Cleveland and Tennessee. Baltimore is even more run-happy than those teams, ranking second in rush attempts and first in yards per carry.
(-2.5) San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. If Kyle Shanahan can't scheme up an offensive attack to expose this woeful Dallas defense, San Fran has big issues.
Ricky: 49ers. Not gonna overreact to San Francisco's back-to-back losses to Buffalo and Washington following its Week 12 win over the Rams. Just like I'm not gonna overreact to Dallas looking competent against Cincinnati. The Niners will control the pace and roll.
Andre: 49ers. Dallas had an easy time against the Bengals because Cincinnati allows the third-most yards per play. San Francisco is coming off back-to-back losses so it might be a little undervalued here. The 49ers' defense is in the top seven in terms of yards allowed per play and should be able to limit Andy Dalton.
Houston Texans at (-7) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. It was just two weeks ago the Texans were driving on the Colts down by the goal line with a chance to win the game. Brandin Cooks should be back this week, and the Texans will be out to play spoiler.
Ricky: Colts. Much has been made of the Texans' depleted receiving corps, but their problems in the secondary are even more concerning, especially since they coincide with an overall inability to stop the run.
Andre: Texans. It's tough to beat a divisional rival twice in three weeks. Plus, Houston's not a bad team despite what its record suggests. The Texans have a positive yards per play differential, and six of their nine losses have come by one possession. They've also had a brutal schedule, with six of their losses coming against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, Packers and Browns.
New England Patriots at (-3) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. I don't care about Bill Belichick's numbers against young quarterbacks. First, if anyone has an idea of what the Patriots will try to do, it's Brian Flores, Josh Boyer, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Eric Rowe, all who came from New England and can help prep Tua Tagovailoa. Second, Belichick had Tom Brady at QB for all of those games; New England might not even score this week.
Ricky: Dolphins. I wonder every week how the Patriots will score points, and those concerns are only heightened when New England faces a good defense and a good coach. Miami checks both boxes.
Andre: Patriots. Since 2005, Bill Belichick is 58-9 against quarterbacks with 16 or fewer career starts. Those QBs have 68 touchdowns and 80 interceptions in those games.
Chicago Bears at (-3) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. Chicago's offense has been much, much better with Mitch Trubisky under center, averaging 6 yards per play and 30 points per game. Also hard to trust the Vikings laying points given Dan Bailey's kicking issues.
Ricky: Vikings. Minnesota is well positioned to exploit the cracks Chicago has shown defensively. The Vikings rank third in explosive play rate -- trailing only the Chiefs and Browns -- while the Bears rank 27th in explosive run rate against and 22nd in explosive pass rate against. Also could see Chicago, which ranks dead-last in third-down conversion percentage and 16th in red-zone offense, leaving points on the field.
Andre: Vikings. Minnesota is another one of those teams that is better than its record suggests. The Vikings have losses to the Packers, Colts, Titans, Seahawks and Bucs and have been relatively better against inferior opponents, especially within their division. Chicago ranks 23rd in yards per play differential and its defense didn't have an answer for Dalvin Cook in the last meeting between these teams.
Detroit Lions at (-10.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. A very uncomfortable pick to make, but Tennessee has injuries on the offensive line (two linemen missed practice Wednesday), and the back door will always be open with that Titans defense.
Ricky: Titans. Detroit might have the NFL's worst defense, while Tennessee's offense very well could be a top-three unit. Hard to imagine the Lions keeping pace, especially if Matthew Stafford deals with the residual effects of a rib injury that's kept him out of practice.
Andre: Titans. Detroit has the fifth-worst expected points contributed by rushing defense, according to Pro Football Reference. Derrick Henry will eat well Sunday.
(-5.5) Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Seattle. I'm wondering whether we've overvalued Washington's defense, which has looked very good lately against the likes of Cincinnati, Dallas and San Francisco. It allowed 31 points per game in a four-game stretch against Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and the Rams, and Seattle arguably has a better offense than all of those teams.
Ricky: Washington. Unlike Mike, I'm buying into Washington's defense, which ranks fourth in DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and grades out as the fourth-best unit overall this season, per Pro Football Focus. It's solid against both the run and the pass -- much like the Rams' defense that held Russell Wilson to his lowest completion percentage, lowest passer rating and second-lowest adjusted QBR of 2020 back in Week 10.
Andre: Washington. This game will be decided in the trenches. Seattle has allowed the third-most sacks in football, while Washington is fourth in sacks. The Seahawks play a lot of close games. Six of their nine wins have come by one possession. So, if I'm getting this many points at home, I'm going to take them.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-6.5) Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. A week of Jalen Hurts tape should help an Arizona defense that came alive last week. Philly's defense, however, might be its bigger problem.
Ricky: Eagles. Arizona's leaky run defense (30th, according to Pro Football Focus) should open the door for both Hurts and, perhaps more importantly, Miles Sanders to help Philadelphia keep pace.
Andre: Cardinals. Arizona's pass rush will overwhelm the Eagles' offensive line, which has allowed the most sacks in the NFL this season.
New York Jets at (-17) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Rams. If there's a number I feel comfortable taking the Jets this week, it at least has to have a 2 in front of it.
Ricky: Rams. The Rams might need to score just 18 points to cover this number, because I'm not sure the Jets make a single dent in the scoreboard against Los Angeles' defense.
Andre: Rams. Since 2017, the Rams are 6-2 ATS when favored by double digits. Nine of New York's 13 losses have come by more than one possession. I have no idea where the Jets will get any points considering LA allows the fewest yards per pass attempt in football.
(-3) Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. On one side, you have Patrick Mahomes. On the other, you have Taysom Hill. If and when the Chiefs get up by 10, good luck trying to run yourself back into the game.
Ricky: Saints. Both of these teams have a Super Bowl ceiling, and the Chiefs have a much higher floor thanks to their quick-strike offense. But New Orleans' defense has been really good, ranking second in DVOA behind Pittsburgh's D, and is well-rounded enough to slow whatever Andy Reid throws at them this week.
Andre: Saints. Kansas City's biggest weakness is its rush defense, which allows 4.7 yards per carry. New Orleans ranks sixth in rush attempts and averages nearly 4.5 yards per carry. The last five Chiefs games all were decided by one possession. With the Saints getting points at home, I'm pretty confident taking them, especially with their defense that has the potential to contain Mahomes.
(-4) Cleveland Browns at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Browns. In the last five weeks, Cleveland is averaging 166 rushing yards per game, giving the Browns the balanced offense they need. Over that same stretch, New York's run defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play, 31st in explosive run rate allowed and 15th in early-down success rate against the run.
Ricky: Giants. Totally narrative driven, but might there be a lingering malaise stemming from Cleveland's emotional loss to Baltimore on Monday night?
Andre: Giants. The Browns are successful at running the ball, averaging nearly five yards per carry. But the Giants' rush defense can mitigate that. They allow the sixth-fewest yards per carry.
MONDAY, DEC. 21
(-12.5) Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Hate laying this many points on the road in the division, but this just feels like a 24-10 game.
Ricky: Steelers. Anything less than a blowout win should raise red flags in Pittsburgh. This matchup is the perfect remedy for a two-game losing streak.
Andre: Steelers. Pittsburgh's pass rush will give hell to Cincinnati, which has allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL. This seems like a very good bounce-back spot for the Steelers.
