Home Run Derby Picks: Odds, Predictions For Coors Field Blast-Off

Monday night has all the makings of a Home Run Derby classic.

For some, that might be a bit of an oxymoron. If glorified batting practice isn’t your bag, that’s fine. But in the deadest of dead times on the sports calendar, the derby represents something to watch — and something to bet on.

This year should be quite the spectacle, too. Baseball’s biggest boppers will take full advantage of the Rocky Mountains’ thin air Monday night at Coors Field. A star-studded field, headlined by Shohei Ohtani, should spend all night just launching balls all over one of MLB’s most picturesque parks.

Before the NESN.com staff gets into some picks for Monday night, here are the latest odds to win the Home Run Derby, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Shohei Ohtani +240
Joey Gallo +420
Pete Alonso +450
Matt Olson +600
Juan Soto +800
Trevor Story +800
Salvador Perez +1500
Trey Mancini +1500

Home Run Derby Bracket Breakdown: Everything You Need To Know

Jul 12, 2021

Here are our picks:

Ricky Doyle: Joey Gallo (+420)
Gallo, the ultimate “three true outcome” player, is riding a hot hand into the Derby, hitting 11 home runs in his final 12 games before the All-Star break. And since walks and strikeouts are off the table Monday, it’s only natural that he’ll load up on long balls. His raw power is well documented, dating back to his days as a prodigious prospect, and his launch angle and exit velocities paint the picture of someone who’s equipped to thrive in a competition centered around going yard. Basically, he checks all the boxes: When he makes contact, he hits the baseball hard, high and far. Sign me up, especially given his relatively favorable position within the bracket.

Adam London: Gallo
It’s tough to pick against Ohtani, who has parked a number of jaw-dropping round-trippers over the first three-plus months of the season. But for the sake of a bet with a richer return, I’m going with Gallo. The Rangers slugger might have more raw power and strength than any other participant in this year’s field, and his average home run distance of 414 feet bodes well for Gallo bettors.

Dakota Randall: Shohei Ohtani (+240)
I’m not going to overthink this. Right now, Ohtani is the best power hitter in the game, and he has a swing that makes it easy to envision a rousing, record-setting run in a Home Run Derby. He also has proven to have a flair for the dramatic. He’s an easy pick, but also an obvious one.

Logan Mullen: Trey Mancini (+1500)
The Derby always seems to lend itself to great stories, like Bryce Harper putting on an absolute show when the All-Star Game was in Washington and he still was with the Nationals. And perhaps there’s no better story this year than Mancini, so seeing him go toe-to-toe with Ohtani, the most exciting player in the game — and winning — in the final round would be a delight.

Mike Cole: Matt Olson (+600)
Olson checks a lot of intriguing boxes. Few ballparks, if any, are worse for left-handed power hitters than Oakland, and while Olson still finds a way, his OPS being nearly 100 points higher on the road speaks volumes. Only Ohtani and Pete Alonso barrel it up on a more consistent basis, so he’s unlikely to have the sort of topspin mishits that can completely derail a derby round. Olson is also bringing the A’s assistant hitting coach to pitch to him, meaning he’s not completely disrupting his BP process, and Olson also has been practicing, so he’s not going to be thrown off by the format. That he wouldn’t face Ohtani (the favorite) or Alonso (the defending champ) until the final bodes well, too.