Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets Game Preview: Bulls a Solid Value in the Mile High City
This is the final game of a five-game road trip for Chicago, while the Nuggets are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Bulls are coming off a disappointing 112-107 loss to the Blazers, a game in which they led by double digits at halftime. Denver comes in losers of two straight.
Despite their lengthy road trip, it's a little surprising to see the Bulls listed as underdogs (+3). Offseason additions of DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso have helped Chicago become one of the league's most well-balanced teams. Billy Donovan's squad is top 10 in offensive rating, defensive rating, points scored (108.5), and points allowed (103.3).
Typical of a Michael Malone-coached team, the Nuggets have been solid defensively, allowing the fewest points per game (99.2) and ranking third in defensive rating. However, the offensive side has been a completely different story. Denver is clearly missing Jamal Murray (ACL recovery) and Michael Porter Jr (lower back pain), both of whom remain out for the foreseeable future. The Nuggets average just 102.6 points per game (24th overall), and outside of Nikola Jokic and Will Barton, they have struggled to get consistent offensive production. Malone's crew will likely have difficulties keeping up with the Bulls offensively, and there is only so much their defense can do to contain the likes of Zach LaVine, DeRozan, and Ball, especially on a back-to-back. Our model loves the Bulls tonight as a five-star play. They're 2-2 on the current trip, and we like them to come home on a winning note.
On the injury front, Chicago will again be without all-star center Nikola Vucevic who will miss his fifth straight game after testing positive for COVID-19. No other injuries of note for Denver outside of Murray and Porter Jr.
As for the game total of 209.5, should both teams approach their average scoring output, which appears likely, the over feels like the better bet. This is a pace-up spot for the Nuggets which should provide a few more scoring opportunities. Our model has a five-star ranking on the over tonight.
