Indiana Pacers vs Chicago Bulls Game Preview: Upset Brewing in the Windy City?

Indiana blew out the New Orleans Pelicans 111-94 on Saturday, snapping a three-game losing skid. The Bulls are on the second night of a back-to-back after earning a hard-fought, come-from-behind victory over the New York Knicks.

While Chicago appears to be the safe bet on paper, the Pacers feel like a squad that's better than their record. Led by all-star big man Domantas Sabonis and point-guard Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana still boasts one of the league's deepest and most talented rosters. After losing six of their first seven, Rick Carlisle's group has gone 6-5 since, a sign that slowly but surely players are starting to adjust to his system. We should also note that Indiana has a zero net rating, so while they might not be winning games consistently, they've mainly been competitive.

The fatigue factor may be at play tonight. The heart of the Bulls lineup – DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Zach LaVine played over 36 minutes last night. Billy Donovan's group will again be without starting center Nikola Vucevic (COVID-19), leading to a very exploitable matchup for the Pacers imposing frontcourt of Sabonis and Myles Turner. Our model likes the Pacers as a value to cover and win outright.

Tonight's over/under of 212 seems relatively low for two teams that average well over 100 points per game – Chicago (108.8), Pacers (107.2). This is a pace-up spot for Indiana as the Bulls play right around the league average. Scoring opportunities should be plentiful and are reflected in our model's five-star rating on the over.