NBA Betting Guide for Friday, November 19: Value On The Under In Charlotte
Our three-game winning streak ended on Thursday thanks to a 70-point third quarter in the Clippers-Grizzlies game that destroyed any chance of the total, finishing under 221.5 points. That means we'll need to start a new streak, so I'm targetting another play on a total for Friday night.
Let's take a look at the matchup.
Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Pacers -108 | Hornets -110
Spread: Hornets -0.5
Total: 216
NBA Championship Odds: Pacers +13000 | Hornets +12000
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Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets, News, Analysis, and Picks
The Indiana Pacers offense looks broken at the moment as they've failed to even crack 90 points in each of their past two games. It's not as if they were playing elite defensive teams either, given that both their opponents, the Knicks, and Pistons, are ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Both games were on the road, and the Pacers will close out this trip with a visit to The Hive in Charlotte.
Charlotte's fared a bit better offensively as it's currently on a four-game winning streak, but all four games finished under the total. Furthermore, the Hornets only managed 97 points last time out against the Wizards. This recent run by the Hornets is down to a commitment on the defensive end. It comes after they lost five straight games and gave up an average of 122.6 points per game. Now, over their previous four, they've allowed opponents an average of just 98.25 points per outing. When you combine that defensive effort with the Pacers' struggles, it's much easier to see why the under looks so promising in this matchup.
The total opened at 218 and has already been bet down to 216. I think a lot of that has to do with both teams combining to score at least 145 points in their past two meetings. However, things can change pretty quickly in the Association, and I think we're getting a bit of value at the current number.
Note that the total is 3-1-1 to the under in their past five regular-season meetings. The under is also on a 5-0 run when the Pacers are an underdog, and it's on a 7-0 run with Indiana on the road.
I'm a little disappointed to miss out on the best number, so I'll look to buy the total up to 217.5 and play the under at -122 odds.
Pick: Under 217.5 (-122)
