NBA Betting Guide for Sunday, November 14: Early Start Time Could Lead To Fewer Points

Leave it to the 2-12 Pelicans to officially put me on tilt and send me into a tailspin. To snap out of this losing streak, I'm going back to one of my favorite angles: target a game where I think the under has some value. And with the Spurs and Lakers getting ready to battle at 3:30 p.m. ET, this looks like the perfect spot to put us back in the winner's circle.

Let's dive into the matchup.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Spurs +122 | Lakers -144

Spread: Lakers -3

Total: 219

NBA Championship Odds: Spurs +49000| Lakers +700

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers, News, Analysis, and Picks

NBA players are not used to playing games in the afternoon. That's it. That's the handicap. It makes sense if you think about it because this league plays the highest percentage of night games compared to other sports like football and baseball. As a result, you can expect to see a few groggy eyes in the building when the teams take the court. But let's look at some other stats that could also point to an under in this game.

Both teams are in the top half of the league in terms of defensive efficiency as the Spurs are allowing 103.5 points per 100 possessions while the Lakers are allowing 103.9 points. Another thing that could be key in this game is staying under the total that neither team is particularly adept at shooting from behind the arc. Los Angeles is 17th with 11.8 three-pointers per game, while the Spurs are 29th with just 10.4 per game.

However, both teams try to generate easier shots by playing a more uptempo style and getting out on the break. The Lakers (14.8) and Spurs (14.3) are ranked sixth and eighth in fastbreak points per game. Los Angeles also leads the league with 108.1 possessions per game, while San Antonio is third with 105.5 per game. Nonetheless, the big question will be how fast each team will want to push the pace for this afternoon game.

Since this game is set to tip-off at 3:30 p.m. ET, that means it'll be 12:30 p.m. ET locally in Los Angeles. It doesn't get much earlier than that. Hopefully, the Spurs contingent were doing some sightseeing as they visited Los Angeles.

Note that the total is 5-2 to the under the past seven times these teams faced off.

But now let's pay off the tease: since the 2005 season, when an NBA game's been played between a start time of noon and 5 p.m. ET, the under is 550-470-18 for +50.74 units.

Sharp bettors are well aware of this trend, and that's why the total's been bet down to 219 after reaching as high at some spots in the market. While I'm a bit disappointed not to get the best of the money, I'll look to take advantage of an alternate line by playing the total under 220.5 at -128 odds.

Pick: Under 220.5