NBA Betting Guide for Thursday, November 18: Value On The Under In Memphis

It was an excellent day in the Association last night as we cashed another ticket with the Pelicans and Heat staying under the total. We bought a little insurance and grabbed the number at 214.5 / -128, resulting in four closing line value points. That brings our winning streak to three games, so the pressure's on to deliver once again.

After scouring the NBA card for Thursday, I'm not in love with any teams in terms of a side. Instead, I've got my sights set on a total that seems to be priced incorrectly. 

Let's take a look at the matchup.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Clippers -108 | Grizzlies -108

Spread: Grizzlies -1

Total: 221

NBA Championship Odds: Clippers +2000 | Grizzlies +8000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, News, Analysis, and Picks

The Los Angeles Clippers are still a playoff-caliber team even with superstar Kawhi Leonard sidelined with an ACL injury. That's because the team's gone all-in on the defensive side of the court. Los Angeles is ranked second in defensive efficiency as opponents are scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions. That number's down to 92.4 points per 100 possessions in their past three games.

You can't continue to hold teams below 100 points if every player's not fully bought in. Thursday's game against the Grizzlies presents another opportunity for the Clippers to show their dominance defensively. Grizzlies' guard Ja Morant gets a ton of praise as the next up-and-coming star in the NBA. That spotlight should make him an even bigger target against elite defensive teams.

Memphis is still a young team that shows promise from time to time, but inexperience is still its Achilles' heel. That's why the Grizzlies are still a .500 team at 7-7 despite impressive wins against the Warriors and the Nuggets.

If you look at the Grizzlies' past five games against the better teams in the league like the Warriors, Nuggets, Wizards, and Suns, the total is 4-1 to the under. Sure, Memphis showed it could drop 136 points against the 1-14 Rockets on Monday night. But what happens when they have to step up in class?

Here are three things to keep in mind for Thursday's game:

• The total is 4-0 to the under in the Grizzlies' past four games against a team over .500.
• The total is 8-0 to the under in the Grizzlies' previous eight Thursday games.
• Lastly, the total is 4-1 to the under in the past five meetings between the Grizzlies and the Clippers.

This line seems a bit inflated following the Grizzlies' 136 point effort in their last outing. While I could certainly play this under at 221, I like the idea of grabbing buying a half-point to 221.5 at -118 odds.

Pick: Under 221.5 (-118)