NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday, November 9: Target The Under In Los Angeles
Our lean on the under in the Pelicans-Mavericks game came in yesterday as both teams combined to score just 200 points in the ballgame. Hindsight is 20/20, so I'm certainly kicking myself for not having more confidence in the play as well as the analysis I put in. I know that I won't make that same mistake today because I'm gearing up to play another under in the Association.
Let's take a look at the matchup.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Trail Blazers +120 | Clippers -142
Spread: Clippers -2.5
Total: 221.5
NBA Championship Odds: Trail Blazers+8000 | Clippers +2000
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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers, News, Analysis, and Picks
I'm loving being an under bettor this season, given the new rule changes to how the NBA expects the game to be officiated moving forward. Referees are advised to no longer reward players who make "abnormal non-basketball moves" to draw a foul.
For the 2021-22 NBA season, there will be an interpretive change in the officiating of overt, abrupt or abnormal non-basketball moves by offensive players with the ball in an effort to draw fouls. The following Points of Education videos showcase areas where a change was needed:
— NBA Official (@NBAOfficial) September 30, 2021
If you've been trapped inside a cave for the past month, you'd be utterly oblivious to the fact that the under is 95-56 for a 62.9% cover rate in the league. As a result, you really can't do much worse if you're looking to find a play in the NBA on a nightly basis.
That brings us to our Tuesday night's best bet between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Los Angeles Clippers. Both teams have to deal with different circumstances as Portland's star guard, Damian Lillard, is not shooting the ball particularly well to start the campaign. Lillard's taking roughly one fewer shot per game, but his field goal percentage had careened down to 35.1% from 45.1% last season. His 18.5 points per game are even lower than the 19.0 points he averaged during his rookie year.
During the offseason, reports surfaced about Lillard's unhappiness with the direction of the organization. However, he didn't go as far as to request to be traded. Nonetheless, if a player is a bit cranky about things, it's difficult for them to go out and perform at a high level on a nightly basis. Even the slightest drop in intensity or focus could result in a decline, which we're seeing thus far from Lillard.
As for the Clippers, they're without their best player in Kawhi Leonard following a partial ACL tear in his right knee during the playoffs last season. Los Angeles isn't wasting any time feeling sorry for themselves. Instead, the team's made an all-out commitment on the defensive side of the court.
The Clippers are second in the league in defensive efficiency as they're allowing opponents just 97.8 points per 100 possessions. That's a big reason why the total is 6-3 to the under when they take the court this season.
This will already be the third meeting between these two teams this season, and both games came in well under the total by at least 20 points. With Portland coming into the game well rested after last playing on Saturday, I expect they'll be able to match the Clippers' intensity in the ballgame.
Given these circumstances combined with how the referees are officiating the games this season, I think the under has a tremendous value below 221.5 points.
Lean: Under 221.5
