NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday, November 17: Target The Under In Miami with the Pelicans and Heat

What a game in Brooklyn on Tuesday night as our Warriors won outright as three-point underdogs. That brings our streak to two games, so we'll try to keep it going with another winner tonight. Although there are 11 games on the card, I'm struggling to find value on a particular side. As a result, I'll look to target a total in what's been a good angle for me this season.

Let's take a look at the matchup.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Pelicans +295 | Heat -370

Spread: Heat -8

Total: 213

NBA Championship Odds: Pelicans +24000 | Heat +1200

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat, News, Analysis, and Picks

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 2-13 of the season, but they've looked better of late with two covers against the spread in their past three games. Those three opponents included the Nets, Grizzlies, and Wizards. You could make the argument they were unlucky not to cover all three games, given that their last outing was a narrow miss by just a half-point. On Wednesday, they'll head to Miami to take on a Heat team that's been one of the stingiest squads defensively.

Miami is ranked seventh in allowing opponents just 101.1 points per 100 possessions. They also could be a bit shorthanded with Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Bam Adebayo (knee) listed as questionable for the game. If they're ruled out, we should have an even better chance of this game falling under the total.

Even if both players don't play, I'd expect the Heat to maintain their defensive intensity, especially considering how the Pelicans have struggled to score points this season. Note that New Orleans is just 25th with 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Another thing I find appealing in this game is that neither team is particularly remarkable in their perimeter shooting. Both are middle of the pack in the league with no more than 11.7 three-point field goals per game. Moreover, we should also benefit from a slower pace in terms of possession, with both teams in the NBA's bottom half.

Miami's 18th with 101.9 possessions per game, while New Orleans is 25th with 100.8 per. Furthermore, both have played much slower over their past three games — particularly New Orleans. The Pelicans are 27th during that span, with just 96.9 possessions per contest.

Here are some key stats to keep in mind:

• The total is 7-0 to the under in the Pelicans' past seven as a road dog.
• The total is 5-0 to the under in the Pelicans' previous five games against a team with a winning record at home.
• In their past six head-to-head meetings, the total is 6-0 to the under.
• The total is 5-0 to the under in Miami's past five games against a team below .500.

I'm going to grab a bit of insurance and buy this number up to 214.5 before playing it under the total.

Pick: Under 214.5 (-128)