NBA Odds: Fade Pelicans After Nets Ruin Huge Lead

Memphis is on a back-to-back


Nov 13, 2021

Gutless, gutless, gutless!!! That’s the only word that comes to mind when I think about how the Nets blew a 20-point lead with four minutes to go in the third quarter. Brooklyn still won the game, but they failed to cover the point spread by a half-point. As a result, I’m revenge-fading the Pelicans again on Saturday when they host the Grizzlies.

Let’s jump into the matchup.

Grizzlies -174 | Pelicans +146

Spread: Grizzlies -4

Total: 218

NBA Championship Odds: Grizzlies +8000 | Pelicans +24000

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Friday’s game looked done and dusted as I fully expected the Nets to cruise and not have to have Kevin Durant and James Harden on the court in the fourth quarter when the Pelicans re-claimed the lead 104-101. Give the Pelicans credit for fighting back but let’s see if they can put together back-to-back performances on consecutive nights. My guess is that game probably felt like somewhat of a moral victory for the Pelicans. That deceiving feeling of satisfaction could lead to a bit of a letdown spot tonight when they take on the Grizzlies.

Now, Memphis also played on Friday night, but they got blown out by Phoenix at home, 119-94. Thus, the Pelicans are the perfect get-right opponent for the Grizzlies.

I’ll be honest, Memphis hasn’t performed all that well in this head-to-head matchup, but Zion Williamson won’t be on the court for the matchup of bragging rights between him and Ja Morant, who were selected first and second overall in the 2019 NBA Draft. However, if we judge both teams on what they’ve done on the court this season, we’re likely getting a reasonable price with just having to lay four points with the Grizzlies.

For one, New Orleans’ average point differential (-11.1) is almost twice that of Memphis (-6.2). Memphis also has higher offensive efficiency with 1.038 points per 100 possessions, whereas New Orleans remains under one at 0.998. It might not seem like a lot, but those numbers add up very quickly over time.

Playing against the Pelicans one night after facing the Suns should be a welcome sight for the Grizzlies offense. Look for them to also get much easier shots at the rim on the break. Note that Memphis is third in league with 15.3 fast break points.

I’m not the least bit shy to come with a play fading the Pelicans after they got the best of me on Friday. New Orleans has only covered back-to-back point spreads twice this season. I’ll be banking on the coming up short on Saturday night.

Pick: Grizzlies -4

Thumbnail photo via Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports Images

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