Southern Methodist vs. Cincinnati Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0) look to add to their resume as they host the SMU Mustangs (8-2) on Saturday, November 20, arguably the top Group of 5 matchup of the weekend.

There’s been a lot of discussion about Cincinnati’s chances (or lack thereof) of making the College Football Playoffs. We’ll spare you most of the talking points you’ve heard being regurgitated ad nauseam for the last few weeks and boil it down this. Yes, Cincinnati still has a shot at making the playoffs — even if it’s a slim chance. Even if you don’t believe that the team certainly does. They will be motivated for the opportunity to add a much-needed quality win to the resume against an 8-2 SMU team.

The Bearcats haven’t been helping their cause after three lackluster performances in their last four games. Did squeaking by Navy or Tulsa impress you, or was it the mediocre showing against South Florida last week?

Cincinnati’s defense has been elite (16.2 PPG allowed, 6th nationally), but SMU is without a doubt the best offense it’s faced. The Mustangs sport the sixth-best scoring offense in the country at 41.6 points per game. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai’s 37 touchdown passes are the second-most in the country. This is a balanced attack averaging 329 passing yards and 170.9 rushing yards — it’s hard to believe they’ll be completely blanked, even by a great defense. 

We lean with SMU, but it’s not an official recommendation. Cincinnati hasn’t looked stellar in recent weeks, but they have every motivation to cover the spread to make an impression on the playoff committee. They also sport the much better defense and will be playing at home — enough to talk us out of taking the dog at this inflated spread.