Celtics Odds, Edges: Finding Analytical Advantages Vs. Jazz
Boston is an 8-point dog against Utah
The Boston Celtics take on the Utah Jazz on Friday, the first game of a difficult West Coast road trip.
Boston is an eight-point underdog against the spread and +260 moneyline entering its first matchup of the year with Utah. With the Jazz at 14-7 and third place in the Western Conference, odds makers say its a long shot for an inconsistent Celtics team against the NBA's best offense. Even with a defense ranked fifth in efficiency and tied for fourth in defensive rating, they have their work cut out for them without Jaylen Brown.
Comparing data from Sportradar and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbooks, here are some angles to consider:
Rudy Gobert over/under 13.5 points
Gobert has been averaging 15.1 points per game with 14.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. In 15 career games against Boston, this year's numbers exceed those averages. Even with the defensive presence Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Al Horford offer, it will be hard for Boston to contain the mismatches he poses without Jaylen Brown. Utah's offense is just too balanced.
A $105 bet on the over would win $100, while you'd need to bet $125 on the under to get the same payout.
Marcus Smart over/under 4.5 assists
Boston's best passer is averaging a career-high 5.8 assists this season. Over the last five games he's averaged 7.0 assists while being predominantly without his favorite target, Robert Williams. Not only that, but against some of the Celtics' best competition this year, Smart has been the motor rising to the occasion to keep them in games. If Boston can't get their shots falling, Smart and Williams could make for a good tag team now that the latter is back. But Utah is a high-end defensive team, too, and the under offers more desirable odds for bettors.
A $100 bet on the under would pay out $110 while it would take $145 on the over to profit $100.
