The Minnesota Timberwolves carry the momentum of three straight victories into tonight's contest against the Dallas Mavericks, who have lost five of their past eight. However, based on our projections, there is a substantive advantage in taking the visitors in tonight's Western Conference showdown.
The Mavs have been without Luka Doncic since December 10, but they are finding ways to win without him. Dallas has turned up the pressure defensively, limiting two of their past three opponents to 96 points or fewer on 34.4% shooting. Although they soaked a tough 107-104 overtime loss to the Lakers last time out, they maintained their strong defensive presence, limiting LA to 93 points in regulation. They will have to lean into that defensive against a T-Wolves team averaging 116.7 points over their three-game winning streak.
Minnesota has been relentless on the glass over their recent stretch, hauling down 31 offensive rebounds over their previous three contests. That has helped the Timberwolves out-shoot their opponents in three straight games, putting up an average of 90.3 shots per game. The T-Wolves remain one of the most uptempo teams in the league, but they are overachieving relative to their season-long average in shooting percentage. We're expecting some correction over the coming games, making the Timberwolves regression candidates.
This is the first night of a home-and-home series, with Tuesday's second game happening in Dallas. There is a significant advantage tonight in backing the Mavericks as +3 underdogs and on the Moneyline. Based on our algorithm, the Mavs should be favored in tonight's contest and have a 63.74% chance of walking away victorious. On that basis, the Moneyline and spread wagers are rated as 5-star plays. There's also a material advantage in taking the over, which we also rate as a 5-star play.
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