Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Game Preview: Spurs a 5-Star Moneyline Pick

Last night the Denver Nuggets just squeezed by the last-place New Orleans Pelicans, needing overtime to close out the win. Tonight the Nuggets travel to San Antonio for a meeting with the Spurs, who have won four of their past six games. With the Spurs playing good ball and the Nuggets playing a road game on no rest, this game is leaning in San Antonio's favor.

First off, the SportsGrid Betting Model gives the over a four and a half star rating with a projected point total of 222.3. This is an excellent play as this season, when the Spurs are at home, the total is 9-1-1 in favor of the over. San Antonio averages 113.2 points a game at home and 117.4 in games at home that they come out with the win, which I think will be the case tonight.

The Spurs have been led offensively by Dejounte Murray, who leads the team in points per game and assists, scoring 18.8 a game and averaging 8.4 assists. Past Murray, the Spurs score on a very committee-based system with five other players scoring over 10 points per game. 

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are a very top-heavy scoring team, with only four players over the 10 points per game mark. The Nuggets are strongly led by Nikola Jokic, ranked sixth in the NBA in points per game, averaging 26.3. If the Spurs can contain Jokic, they should come out on top tonight. You aren't going to shut down the Serbian entirely, but if you can keep him under control, the game becomes a lot easier.

The SportsGrid Betting Model gives this game a fair moneyline of -182 in favor of the Spurs, meaning you are getting some value there. San Antonio is 3-2 this season when listed as the favorite. With how strong the Spurs have been playing these past two weeks, beating teams such as the Warriors and the Wizards, I think they should come out on top tonight.

Also, with such a low spread, if they are going to come away with the win, they most likely will cover, so that should be a safe bet as well. 

Picks: Spurs Moneyline (-132), Game Total: Over (215.5), Spread: Spurs (-1.5) 

All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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