Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Monday Night Football Preview, Picks, and Betting Guide
Don't be fooled by the Rams' 37-7 victory in Week 13 over the hapless Jaguars. Jacksonville's scored a total of seven points in its past two games. I'm still not convinced that Matthew Stafford is the right quarterback to lead the Rams back to a Super Bowl.
Stafford's been a bit of a liability as he's thrown a pick-six in three of his past four games. He and the Rams will head to Arizona for a divisional clash on Monday night. In their previous meeting in Week 4, Stafford also threw an interception in a 37-20 loss. This elite Cardinals team ranks third overall in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. Arizona's also currently tied with the Colts in turnover margin at +1 per game.
The key for me in this matchup is Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. All four of the Rams' losses have come against quarterbacks who offer a threat in the running game. Arizona is one of the toughest teams to play against because they're so balanced on offense. Per TeamRankings, the Cardinals run the ball 48.31% of the time, which puts them second in the league in this category. In contrast, the Rams rank 23rd with a run play rate of 38.56%. Having team-leading rusher Darrell Henderson out for this one on the COVID-19 list doesn't help LA's cause on the ground. In their earlier meeting, Arizona rushed for 216 yards against a Rams team ranked second in DVOA against the run.
While the trends don't necessarily favor the Cardinals, my power ratings make Arizona closer to a four-point favorite. And with Arizona currently laying two points, I'll bypass the point spread and play them on the money line for a half-unit.
