New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

It's a huge NFC South match-up as the New Orleans Saints (6-7) head to Tampa Bay to take on the surging Buccaneers (10-3) on Sunday Night Football. Surprisingly, the Saints have won three straight games in the regular season vs. Tom Brady. That being said, Brady has never lost four straight regular-season games to a single opponent.

The Buccaneers are on a roll as the schedule hits the last quarter of the regular season. Winners of four straight and perfect at home with a record of 6-0. Meanwhile, for the Saints, their slim playoff hopes are still alive, but they will have to keep their winning streak against Brady alive if they have a chance at the postseason.

For Tampa Bay and Brady, nothing has been sweeter than playing at home. Brady is undefeated at home with 22 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. However, it's been another story on the road as the team is 4-3 with 14 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. During their six-game unbeaten streak at home, the Buccaneers have scored 30+ points in every game, making the Bucs just one of two teams in NFL history to win their first six home games of the season while scoring at least 30+ points in each. The only other team to do this was also led by Brady when the 2007 New England Patriots did the same thing. Sticking with the Bucs' pivot, he is 68-16 in his career as a starter in December, giving him 16 more wins than any other quarterback in that month since 1970.

For the Saints, they are on a roll against the Bucs, having beaten them six straight times; during this winning streak, the average score has been 33.5-18 for the Saints, who have 21 defensive sacks and 14 takeaways while the Buccaneers have just five defensive sacks and five takeaways. The key to New Orleans' success hinges on the play of running back Alvin Kamara. Without Kamara, the Saints are 0-4 while averaging 18.3 points, 98 rushing yards, and 2.3 turnovers a game this season. When their lead back is in the lineup, the Saints are 6-3, scoring 25.7 points per game while rushing for 131.9 yards per game and committing just 0.8 turnovers a game.

Looking into some trends for this game, the Saints are 0-6 in their past six games following an against-the-spread win. This year, they are also 3-9 ATS facing teams with winning records. The Buccaneers are 5-0 in their previous five games against the spread as a home favorite. They are also 13-3-2 in their previous 18 December games against the spread.

All NFL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

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