NFL Week 16 Picks: Unpacking Christmas Slate, Breaking Down AFC East ‘Title Game’

Christmas week is here, and COVID-19 cases are spiking across the league, but the NFL train doesn’t stop rolling for either of those.

As ESPN Stats and Info pointed out, there still are 27 teams technically in playoff contention with just three weeks to play. A look at the AFC really illustrates the wide-open nature of things, with the Denver Broncos, technically in last place in the West, just three games behind the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the entire conference.

Perhaps the most significant game of the weekend is a Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots rematch in Foxboro that essentially is an AFC East title game. But that’s far from the only game with significance this week, and NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are ready to make their against-the-spread picks for each and every game.

But first, here’s how they fared in Week 15.

Now, here are their Week 16 picks, with lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

THURSDAY, DEC. 23

(-3.5) San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Titans. God help me, I can’t quit Tennessee despite a mounting pile of evidence suggesting I should. In this one, I think it’s the Titans’ defense that generates pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, enough to disrupt his timing and take him out of his groove, similar to what we saw for a short span earlier in the season.
Ricky: 49ers. San Francisco’s defense, which ranks second in rush DVOA, has the potential to make Tennessee’s offense one-dimensional. And that’s when the Titans’ shortcomings are most apparent, highlighted by 13 giveaways over their last four games, during which Tennessee is 1-3 SU.

SATURDAY, DEC. 25

Cleveland Browns at (-7.5) Green Bay Packers, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Browns. If Cleveland is anywhere near full strength, it can do things to give the Packers problems, like run the ball consistently with Nick Chubb, stop the run on defense and get after the passer. There’s enough there to frustrate Green Bay and keep this one close.
Ricky: Packers. Don’t like the spot for the Browns, who are coming off a deflating loss to the Raiders on Monday night and now need to play on Saturday amid lingering COVID concerns. The Packers, 6-0 ATS this season, should roll at Lambeau Field as Cleveland starts looking toward the offseason.

Indianapolis Colts at (-1) Arizona Cardinals, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Arizona’s defense has sprung a leak, allowing Matthew Stafford and then Jared Goff (!) to carve them up to the tune of a 139.8 passer rating. They’re also getting run on, which is bad news with Jonathan Taylor coming to town, as Indy is 8-0 when the MVP candidate surpasses 100 yards in a game.
Ricky: Cardinals. Last week was a weird spot for the Cardinals, facing the Lions in-between an important Monday night showdown with the Rams and a Christmas Day clash with the Colts. As such, I’m not putting too much stock into the Motor City meltdown. There’s some value here, with the Colts in for a letdown after their Week 15 victory over the Patriots. Arizona must score early and force Indianapolis to lean more than it would like on quarterback Carson Wentz.

The Spread Podcast | Patriots-Bills Rematch; Week 16 Locks | Ep. 39

Dec 21, 2021

SUNDAY, DEC. 26

Buffalo Bills at (-2.5) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. The injuries are starting to pile up for the Patriots, who might be without three receivers and their starting running back. If that’s the case, Buffalo should be able to execute a focused game plan, and offensively, the Bills have to feel better about playing the Patriots when the wind isn’t blowing 50 mph.
Ricky: Bills. The Patriots’ rushing performance against the Bills in Week 13 is somewhat overrated, as Buffalo did a decent job of slowing New England on the ground outside of a broken play and one other key drive. If the Bills’ defense can turn in a similar performance Sunday, forcing Mac Jones to actually throw the football, Buffalo will be equipped to pull off the upset. Expect a better game (and game plan) from Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense.

(-10.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. I’m getting some 2019 Patriots vibes from Tom Brady and the Bucs. The offense looked awful Sunday night without any sort of weapons for Brady, with Chris Godwin done for the season, Leonard Fournette to injured reserve and Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring issue.
Ricky: Panthers. Too many points to lay on the road, against a divisional opponent, when you consider Carolina’s defense has been decent at times and it’s hard to know what to expect from Tampa Bay’s offense moving forward.

(-9) Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. LA is among the latest teams to have a COVID outbreak, and these things typically have gotten worse as the week goes on, not better. If that’s the case, the Chargers might be more concerned with getting in, getting a win (even an ugly one) and focusing on a pair of pivotal divisional games to end the season.
Ricky: Texans. Houston is kinda pesky and unlikely to just roll over. That’ll be extra annoying for a Chargers team that already has had an annoying week due to COVID.

Detroit Lions at (-5.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Detroit actually has a better yards per play differential over the last three weeks, and Dan Campbell clearly has this team motivated to play for him. This number should probably be no higher than a field goal.
Ricky: Lions. The Falcons have barely beaten bad teams, and they’ve been blown out by good teams, including the 49ers in Week 15. Detroit obviously falls under the former category, but Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone.

Baltimore Ravens at (-2.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. Since losing Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens have allowed opposing QBs to complete 71% of passes with five touchdowns and a 111.7 passer rating. They also rank sixth in missed-tackle percentage. It’s a tough ask for a team that already got smoked by Cincinnati (at home) earlier this season.
Ricky: Ravens. Baltimore, second in net time of possession per drive and second in third-down defense, has a knack for keeping the game under control, at least enough to be competitive late. Credit the coaching, even if the Ravens’ aggressiveness doesn’t always pay off.

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-2.5) New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. One thing I’m looking for this week is poorly coached or unmotivated road teams. These teams have to travel on Christmas to go play a relatively meaningless game. Might just blindly fade those teams, and the Jags are one of them.
Ricky: Jets. We all can agree the Jaguars are the messiest of messes, right?

(-3) Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Rams. LA handled its COVID situation well and took care of business Tuesday night, and the coaching is good enough that the Rams should be ready for Minnesota on a short week. The defense, which has allowed 40 total points over the last three weeks, should be the difference-maker.
Ricky: Vikings. The Rams are coming off back-to-back primetime divisional games. To their credit, they won both, but LA still feels susceptible to a flop just when everyone jumps back on the bandwagon. The Rams are 2-4 ATS as road favorites.

New York Giants at (-10) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. The Giants have a putrid run defense, and despite the fact Philly played Tuesday, the Eagles have run for at least 175 in each of their last seven games. They build an early lead, salt it away, and then there’s no chance the equally putrid New York offense gets back into this one.
Ricky: Giants. Quarterback play is a real issue for the Giants right now. But this is a large number for an NFC East matchup, and the Eagles are coming off a short week while dealing with COVID problems, with head coach Nick Sirianni’s status for Sunday in jeopardy.

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Dec 22, 2021

Chicago Bears at (-6.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Definitely falls into the bad team on the road with nothing to play for thing, especially in Chicago’s first week since officially being eliminated from playoff contention. Basically, I trust Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll to put forth a stronger effort than the Bears as a collective.
Ricky: Seahawks. Justin Fields is dealing with an ankle injury, adding an extra element of uncertainty for Chicago, which probably just wants to take its ball and go home at this point.

Denver Broncos at (-1.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:15 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. The Raiders are a bad team with an OK quarterback. The Broncos are an OK team with a bad quarterback, assuming Drew Lock starts. Not sure how that calculus plays out, but I do think the Broncos’ rushing attack and defense are good enough to keep Lock from having to go toe-to-toe with Derek Carr.
Ricky: Raiders. Really wanted to pick the Broncos, because their running game and defense theoretically should travel well this time of year. But Lock is a late-game turnover waiting to happen. So, I just couldn’t do it.

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-7.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. We saw this line change in real-time during “The Spread,” dropping from Kansas City -9.5 due to the Chiefs’ COVID outbreak. Gonna still roll with the Steelers, though, who continue to win or keep it close despite not actually being very good. *Shrug*
Ricky: Steelers. We need only look back a few days to see just how important Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are to Kansas City’s offense. With their statuses up in the air for Sunday, it’s hard to feel good about laying too many points, especially given Pittsburgh’s knack for coming up with key defensive stops and unwillingness to go quietly into the night.

Washington Football Team at (-10.5) Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Dallas built a 24-0 lead on the Football Team just a few weeks ago before Washington stormed back for a pretty improbable cover. Since then, WFT endured its own COVID outbreak and has seen its playoff odds drop to 10%, per The New York Times’ playoff calculator. The Cowboys put them out of their misery in a big way here.
Ricky: Cowboys. Maybe the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to their Week 17 matchup with the Cardinals. But WFT just feels like it has run out of gas, for various reasons, and Dak Prescott and Dallas’ offense should be licking its chops at a golden opportunity to finally hit a different gear.

MONDAY, DEC. 27

Miami Dolphins at (-3.5) New Orleans Saints, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. As mentioned on “The Spread” this week, this line makes no sense to me. It should almost certainly be higher, especially after what we saw from the Saints in Tampa on national TV last week combined with New Orleans going home for another primetime game. So, no, I’m not taking the bait and will put my faith in a red-hot Dolphins team instead.
Ricky: Dolphins. The Saints’ quarterback uncertainty (COVID) coupled with the Dolphins’ pass defense sounds like a recipe for a game in which points are at a premium.