Weekend Picks: Why You Should Bet Bills To Cover Against Patriots

Last weekend’s football picks went 3-1 led by Michigan’s dominance of Ohio State in Ann Arbor. The only whiff came on the Seattle Seahawks and that’s a team I definitely won’t be betting the rest of the season.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

College Football Odds: Think Twice Before Betting Alabama Vs. Georgia

Dec 2, 2021

Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, O/U 49) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Georgia -6.5

Fading Nick Saban around this time of year is always dangerous, but I don’t think he’s got the horses in this one. Alabama’s offensive line is the worst it’s been in a long time and the Crimson Tide just can’t run the football. Georgia’s defense starts an upperclassman at every single position and it’s one of the best units we’ve seen in decades. Imagine betting against a defense that’s only allowed seven offensive touchdowns this season. Won’t be me.

Michigan Wolverines (-12.5, O/U 43.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa +12.5

The betting market has done a total role reversal on Michigan. Nobody wanted to bet the Wolverines last weekend as an 8-point home underdog, but now the public is running to the window to lay double digits with them a neutral site. Got it. Iowa is stylistically built to stop the run, which is what Michigan does best. Expect a lot of punts in this battle for field position between two very conservative head coaches. It won’t be popular at all, but I’m on the dog.

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, O/U 42.5) at Chicago Bears
Cardinals -7.5

The Bears are a very bad football team and now they’re banged up. Khalil Mack already is out for the season, Akiem Hicks won’t play Sunday and there’s a good chance that Roquan Smith doesn’t go. Those are Chicago’s three best defensive players and stopping Arizona will not be an easy task no matter who starts at quarterback for the Cardinals. Bears head coach Matt Nagy’s days are numbered and this very easily could be a blowout.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, O/U 41)
Bills -2.5

The Patriots are the hottest stock in the NFL right now, which makes it cheaper to bet the Bills. If this game was played a month ago, Buffalo would’ve been a 4.5-point favorite. New England’s surge to the top of the AFC East is damn impressive, but there also were some atrocious opponents over this six-game winning streak. Are wins over the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Atlnata Falcons and Tennessee Titans (without Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones) really that impressive? I like Josh Allen and Co. in a statement game at home.

Sam’s Picks
Georgia -6.5
Iowa +12.5
Cardinals -7.5
Bills -2.5

RECORD: (85-74, +17.3)