NFL Saturday Divisional Round Best Player Prop Bets: All Eyes on Derrick Henry's Return
Player props are a terrific way to get into the NFL action, and Saturday's Divisional Round slate is full of prime spots to capitalize on individual player performance. With teams looking to advance to the next round, a couple of players may exceed expectations.
Look below and check out a few props to target this week.
All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
The Bet: Under 278.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow leads the ninth-ranked Cincinnati offense (per PFF) to Nashville to meet with the AFC's number one seed—the Tennessee Titans. A stout defense, the Titans rank 12th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and should give Burrow and the Bengals' receiving corps issues throughout the game. The Bengals are among the league's slowest-paced teams, averaging a play every 28.4 seconds and relying on the arm of Burrow, opting for a slightly-skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz). Look for Burrow to likely target his dynamic playmakers in Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, with Chase leading the trio with a 24% target share, averaging 7.5 targets per game and 18 yards per reception. As 3.5-point road underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bengals will likely increase their passing cadence in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive.
This year, Burrow has reached the 279-passing yard mark eight times. Our models project him for 238.27 passing yards against the Titans, trending him far below the mark in what looks to be a tough matchup for the AFC North Champions, despite the possibility of a shootout.
AJ Dillon – Green Bay Packers
The Bet: Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The NFC's number one seed, the Green Bay Packers, host the San Francisco 49ers in a frigid night game at Lambeau Field. Part of a split Packers' backfield, AJ Dillon has emerged as a viable option alongside Aaron Jones. The Packers play at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a play every 29.4 seconds. Despite facing a 49ers defense ranked second in rush DVOA, look for the Packers to likely control the game's pace, currently 5.5-point home favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. Dillon has seen an uptick in production toward the end of the season, seeing no less than seven rushing attempts after Week 10, and has averaged 11 rushing attempts and 4.29 yards per carry this season. In a clock-killing situation, combined with colder temperatures, Dillon should see an uptick in production, especially toward the end of the game, if Green Bay should hold on for the win.
This year, Dillon reached the 40-rushing yard mark 11 times. He projects for 53.93 rushing yards against the 49ers Saturday, trending him toward the over, despite facing one of the stouter rush defenses in the league.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
The Bet: Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
One of the more dominant backs in the league, Derrick Henry, returns to action Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals after missing 12 weeks with a foot injury. This year, Henry has seen an uptick in production with the Titans' passing game, averaging 2.5 targets per game and 19.3 receiving yards per game. The Bengals rank 24th in pass DVOA, which should set up an ideal matchup for quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the Titans' receiving corps to move the ball down the field through the air.
This season, Henry has reached the 11-rush yard mark in six games, and we're projecting him for 14.55 receiving yards, trending him toward the over, in an ideal spot against a Bengals' defense that has had difficulty defending the passing game this season.
All NFL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
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