We finished the weekend strong by cashing a ticket on the underdog Hawks as they won outright in Queen City against the Hornets. As we turn the page to Monday, there are only four games to choose from on the NBA calendar. However, I did manage to find a play on a total that seems a bit inflated.
Let's head to the Valley where the Suns host the Utah Jazz.
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns, Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Jazz +350 | Suns -450
Spread: Jazz +9.5 (-110) | Suns -9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 222.5 (-110) | Under 222.5 (-110)
NBA Championship Odds: Jazz +1200 | Suns +750
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns, News, Analysis, and Picks
To get an idea of how good the Jazz have been this season, they're just 3-7 in their past ten games, yet they're still 30-17 on the campaign. In three of their past six games, they failed to score at least 100 points, and their opponents in those games were the Warriors, Lakers, and Cavaliers — all of whom are likely playoff contenders. It's worth noting that the Warriors and Cavaliers rank in the top five in terms of unders this season with at least a 60% cover rate. The Suns aren't far behind at 55.6%. And with Utah's offense somewhat scuffling of late, I think it'll be a tall task for them to find their groove against this Suns team.
Phoenix does a great job mitigating one of Utah's strengths as it ranks fourth in the league, allowing opponents 11.2 three-pointers per game. Furthermore, over the Suns' past three games, that number's dropped to ten during that span.
Conversely, Utah leads the league with 14.7 three-point field goals per game, and that number's down to 10.3 in its past three games. As a result, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that the total's gone under in each of those three games.
Here are some trends worth noting for this matchup:
- The total is 5-0 to the under when Utah's opponent allows at least 100 points in their previous game.
- In Phoenix's past six games as a favorite, the total is 5-1 to the under.
- The total is 4-0 to the under in Phoenix's previous four games off an ATS loss.
- In the past 16 head-to-head meetings, the total is 11-5 to the under.
With this game featuring two of the best teams in the Western Conference, I think we'll see a highly contested especially considering how Phoenix defends the three-point line.
The under is well worth a look in this spot.
Pick: Under 222.5 (-110)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
