Tonight's Hottest NBA Player Prop Bets: Doncic and Tatum to fall short
There are nine NBA games on the slate tonight, and we have two props for you to consider.
You'll want to tune into the Kings vs. Celtics at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Mavericks vs. Warriors at 10:00 p.m. ET.
If these wagers are not to your liking, you can independently consult with the Sportsgrid NBA Player Prop Projections Tool to find some alternative five-star bets.
As always, FanDuel Sportsbook is your friend regarding all of the latest NBA odds and lines.
Please note that betting lines and game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Luka Doncic - Under 26.5 Points (-114)
Luka Doncic is averaging 25.6 points a game this season, which is just under a point less than the 26.5 line. Let's dig deeper into the numbers and see if we can move closer to locking this bet up.
The Warriors lead the league in defense, limiting opponents to 101.9 points per game. Doncic averages 26 points against Golden State, which is slightly closer to the line but still falls half of a point short. On the road, Doncic doesn't find the basket as easily. He's averaging 23.5 points per game away from home.
January has Doncic's totals slightly down from the rest of the season. He's putting up 25.5 points per game this month. However, he is coming off three big totals in a row, putting up 37, 28, and 41 points. Over his career, Doncic averages 25.7 points a game, which would still put him shy of the line.
With the Warriors defense and Doncic averages, we're confident the under is a solid bet here.
The projection tool agrees, estimating Doncic will score 22.1 points, giving the under a 20.2 percent edge and a five-star rating.
Jayson Tatum - Under 27.5 Points (-120)
Jayson Tatum is averaging 25.8 points a game this season. Furthermore, he's averaging 24.1 points in home contests. Over his past ten, he's put up 27.2 points a night, and through January, he's averaged 26.5. Tatum falls short of the 27.5 point line across the board.
However, the Kings are not good on defense. They rank 28th in the NBA in opponent scoring, allowing 114.5 points per game.
Sacramento does score more points than the Celtics. The Kings sit tenth, averaging 110.5 points per game to Boston's 107.6. Sacramento should also have the ball most of the time. They're fifth in NBA pace per game with 102.2, while the Celtics are 21st with 98.8. The pace factor measures the number of possessions a team uses per game.
If Tatum doesn't have the ball more often than usual, he's going to fall short of the 27.5 point line tonight.
The projection tool tells us Tatum will pick up 23.2 points against Sacramento. It gives a bet on the under an 18.6 percent edge and a five-star rating.
We're confident that betting the under on Tatum is a solid choice against the Kings.
All NBA game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
