After Duels Win, Brad Keselowski Dark Horse Betting Pick For Daytona 500?

It was a breakout moment for a newly reorganized team, the two drivers for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing celebrating Thursday night after winning both Duels at Daytona International Speedway.

These were the types of moments Brad Keselowski came for, the reasons he joined the team long overseen by Jack Roush as a co-owner. It’s been a long time since the entity now known as RFK Racing was relevant on a week-to-week basis in the NASCAR Cup Series, so any forward movement can be seen as a positive.

Of course, the goal isn’t to win just the Duels or even one race, but one way for Keselowski to announce the team’s revival would be to take the checkered flag at Sunday’s Daytona 500.

With +1400 odds to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, Keselowski is getting somewhat surprisingly bullish treatment from Vegas. He’s never won this race, and only claimed victory once in his career at DIS, when he took the 2016 Coke Zero 400. Beyond that win, Keselowski’s overall performance on the superspeedway has been meager; according to DriverAverage.com, Daytona is his second-worst active track, with 12 DNFs in 25 tries.

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So what’s to suggest Sunday might be different?

It starts with Ford’s speed this year. The blue oval swept the P1-P4 positions in Thursday’s first Duel and was in position to do the same in the second Duel until Joey Logano, in his own words, “screwed up.” While Toyota has owned victory lane in recent years, Ford’s consistency makes it a strong manufacturer pick.

That’s not a one-night fluke, though. Ford also snatched wins in both Daytona oval races in 2021, with Michael McDowell and Ryan Blaney taking the winter and summer races, respectively. (Keselowski was in contention in last year’s race before his teammate Logano blocked him and opened the door for McDowell.) While Ford was shut out of the Championship Four last fall, the next four spots in the standings were held by Ford drivers. So the speed is there, even if the top-line results in the 500 appear to be lacking.

Finally, the “who knows?” nature of restrictor plate racing — not to mention a brand-new racing package — makes it next to impossible to establish any unquestioned favorite. While there are several big names with better potential payouts — Kyle Busch (+1500), Kevin Harvick (+2000) and Martin Truex Jr. (+2000) — Keselowski might be the best combination of talent, number and some semblance of Daytona history to justify a wager. Sure, someone such as Justin Haley (+3500) could win, but is anybody actually confident in lightning striking twice for the 2019 Coke Zero 400 champion?

It’s been some time since an RFK Racing driver nabbed a win at Daytona — “America! 1776! We are the champs!” — but it’s also been some time since the team had a driver of Keselowski’s caliber in a seat.