Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model
The Nuggets and Celtics will meet for the first time this season as both teams continue to vie for playoff positioning in the upper echelon of their respective conferences. Boston is not a team you want to run into right now as they are on a six-game winning streak and have won eight of their last nine. Add in that they are 8-3 over their last 11 home games and this feels like a spot where the Celtics could continue their recent dominance against a Nuggets team that has battled injuries to star players throughout the last 12 months.
A large part of the recent success for the Celtics has come on the defensive end. They are tops in the league over the last three games allowing just 89 points per outing, nearly four points less than the second-place Cleveland Cavaliers in that span. It will need to show up yet again against one of the league's more dominant players in Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and against a Denver team that has put up 124 and 132 points in their last two outings.
The Nuggets don't seem to fare very well in this spot according to the SportsGrid Betting Model. It gives the road underdogs just a 17.30 percent chance of winning this matchup and includes an expected margin of 11 points in favor of the Celtics. With a spread of just -6, that's a clear five-star play for Boston to cover that home spread. The moneyline shares a similar story with a five-star play backing the Celtics as a fair moneyline of -478, a far reach from the -235 available on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
The total is an area where the model sees some value, but not quite as much as the spread. With a projected total of 223, it sees some opportunity in backing this one to go over the total of 219 that is currently available on the FanDuel Sportsbook. It's not a lot of value as just a 2.5-star play and when looking back at the dominance on defense Boston has displayed in recent games, it makes backing the over a bit scarier. You may want to stay away from the total in this matchup.
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
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