New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators Betting Guide: Value on the Underdog Home Side

New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Rangers -225 | Senators +184

Spread: Rangers -1.5 (+120) | Senators +1.5 (-148)

Total: 6 Over -105 | Under -115

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New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators News, Analysis, and Picks

For the first time in five games, the New York Rangers are on the road, taking on the Ottawa Senators at the Canadian Tire Centre. The Sens come into Sunday afternoon's contest on the second night of a back-to-back after dropping an overtime loss to the Boston Bruins on Saturday. Still, Ottawa has several metrics working in their favor, which should help keep things close against the Rangers at home.

The Sens have been playing a solid brand of hockey in 2022, going 9-8-3 since the turn of the calendar. Part of that stellar play could be attributed to the Sens' improved defensive structure over their recent sample. Ottawa has limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger and 23 or fewer scoring chances at five-on-five in five of their past seven. Their recent play has resulted in improved game scores, as the Sens have posted expected goals-for percentages above 50 percent in three of their past five games.

New York is trending in the opposite direction over their recent sample, getting outplayed in three of five games. If we zoom out a little further, it reveals a more concerning pattern. The Rangers have posted expected goals-for ratings below 50 percent at five-on-five in 24 of their past 27 games. That disconnect between performances and outcomes is reflected in the Rangers PDO, as they have the third-highest mark in the league. We're anticipating more losses for the Rangers as their metrics balance over their upcoming games and their PDO trends down towards average.

The Sens have been competitive over their recent sample, but they don't have the wins to show for it. We're anticipating another strong performance from the Sens and further correction from the Rangers after an extended period of overachieving. We're aligned on the Sens moneyline on Sunday.

The Picks: Senators +180

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.