Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators Betting Guide: Classic Revenge Spot for Matt Murray and the Sens

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Penguins -225|Senators +184

Spread: Penguins -1.5 (+120)|Senators +1.5 (-148)

Total: 6.5 Over -104|Under -118

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators News, Analysis, and Picks

On Thursday night, Matt Murray gets to face the team that he helped lead to Stanley Cup glory. It will be the first time the Ottawa Senators goalie faces the Pittsburgh Penguins since the Pens decided to move on from their young netminder. That could spell trouble for Pittsburgh as Murray is playing a solid brand of hockey over his recent outings.

Murray has been a stalwart over his past few games, going 3-0-1 over his previous four starts, allowing five total goals, and stopping 96.2 percent of shots. It’s worth noting that all four games have come on home ice, elevating his season-long save percentage to 94.3 percent in his friendly confines. That improved play comes at a time of increased scoring, as the Sens have recorded three or more goals in three of four games, with a 10.6 percent shooting percentage. Still, their season-long shooting and save percentages remain deflated, and further progression is anticipated as their PDO climbs back up to average.

The Penguins have put forth some lackluster performances over their recent stretch, getting outplayed in four of their past five. Pittsburgh has put up expected game scores beneath 40.0 percent in two of those games and established a 43.8 percent expected goals-for rating over that span. It’s not surprising that they’ve dropped four of those decisions. The Penguins’ offensive well is starting to run dry, as they’ve attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances during the five-game sample, with a running average of 7.2 per game. That could perpetuate Murray’s improved metrics.

Ottawa is running hot right while Pittsburgh’s play has taken a turn for the worse. We’re not betting against a hot goalie, particularly against an offense failing to generate any meaningful opportunities. Sens moneyline is the play.

The Picks: Senators +184

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.