Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Guide: Tight-Checking Affair on Deck at the Scotiabank Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Penguins +128 | Maple Leafs -154

Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-194) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+156)

Total: 6.5 Over +100 | Under -122

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis, and Picks

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently, going 10-1-3 over their past 14 games. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been doing their best to keep pace with an 11-4-1 record in 2022. These streaks collide on Thursday amid a deterioration in Toronto's metrics.

At five-on-five, the Leafs have been outplayed in four of their past seven. There's been a breakdown in their offensive production metrics, as the team has been limited to eight or fewer high-danger opportunities and 25 or fewer scoring chances in four of their previous seven. Still, those lackluster metrics haven't had a profound impact on scoring, as the Leafs have managed four or more goals in five of seven, thanks to a 12.8 percent shooting percentage. There is a crater forming in Toronto's metrics and they can't continue to see increased output along with decreased production. We're anticipating a cooling-off period while their metrics balance out.

That could come against a Pens squad that has been effective at smothering their opponents all season. Their structured defensive play has been even more evident over their past couple of games as the Penguins limited both opponents to five high-danger chances and 19 or fewer scoring chances. That's not to diminish their efforts leading up to their stout play, as they've held their opponents to nine or fewer quality opportunities in 11 straight games, with only one opponent attempting more than 24 scoring chances.

Pittsburgh does an excellent job of forcing opponents to take low-quality shots, which will help them against a Maple Leafs team headed towards regression, a big reason why the Pens will come out on top of a tight-checking affair.

The Picks: Penguins +128

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.