Today's NBA Best Bet: Target The Under In Dallas On Wednesday Night
A poor performance in the second quarter all but sealed the Nuggets' fate as they failed to climb their way back from a 16-point deficit. We'll need to turn things around quickly to avoid taking a step back after being on a decent run of late. On Wednesday, the NBA slate includes nine games on the card. One matchup that particularly caught my eye is in Big D, with the Mavericks hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks, Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Thunder +610 | Mavericks -900
Spread: Thunder +12 (-110) | Mavericks -12 (-110)
Total: Over 230.5 (-108) | Under 230.5 (-112)
NBA Championship Odds: Thunder +50000 | Mavericks +4200
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks, News, Analysis, and Picks
I've had some success playing the under in Oklahoma City's games, and I think Wednesday's matchup against the Mavericks could be another opportunity for a low-scoring affair. Per TeamRankings, the Thunder come into this contest with a 29-20 (59.2%) mark to the under. However, they still trail the Mavericks, who have a 32-17-2 (65.3%) run to the under.
We know the Mavericks tend to stay under the total because Dallas ranks 29th in pace with 99.2 possessions per game. However, what intrigues me about this matchup is that Oklahoma ranks dead last in defensive efficiency with 99.5 points per 100 possessions. Thus, it's evident that both teams demonstrate characteristics that suit under bettors.
With Oklahoma City struggling offensively, one could assume they won't even benefit from playing the game at a faster pace. Yet, based on our findings, we're expecting a much slower pace given how the Mavericks play. It's worth noting that Dallas is the home team, so it's normal to expect them to control the tempo.
The Mavericks are no slouch either when it comes to defense. Dallas ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents 104.3 points per 100 possessions.
In this series, the total's gone under in each of the four recent meetings in Dallas. The total is also 7-2 to the under in their past nine meetings. As a result, I think we have a good chance for another under on Wednesday night.
This total opened at 208.5, and it's already gotten the attention of sharp bettors, who pushed it down as low as 205.5 at some sportsbooks. However, since the current number is a little tight given what my model projects, I'll look to buy the total up to 207.5 at -128 odds.
Pick: Under 207.5 (-128)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
