Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers Betting Guide: Caps Undervalued in Metropolitan Division Matchup

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Capitals +104 |Rangers -125

Spread: Capitals +1.5 (-235) |Rangers -1.5 (+180)

Total: 6 Over +100 | Under -122

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. 

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers News, Analysis, and Picks

The Metropolitan Division playoff race is intensifying and the Washington Capitals are outside of the top three looking in. They face the team directly above them in the standings tonight, as the Caps travel to take on the New York Rangers. We’re anticipating playoff intensity in what constitutes a four-point game; the team that walks away victorious gets the two points, preventing their opponent from capturing the points and closing or opening the gap between them in the standings. We like the Caps to keep things competitive against the Rangers tonight.

New York has substantially overachieved relative to their metrics this season. The Rangers have the fifth-best points percentage, despite posting the fourth-worst expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five. That disconnect is reflected in their PDO, as the Rangers have the ninth-ranked PDO at five-on-five, jumping up to the third highest across all strengths. Since the start of December, the Rangers have outplayed their opponents just four times in 28 contests, widening the gap between outcomes and metrics. We’re expecting some tough luck losses to pile up for the Broadway Blueshirts.

Improved defensive play has helped the Capitals win three of their past four. Washington has limited their opponents to no more than eight high-danger chances in three straight games and five of their past six, preventing their opponents from attempting more than 25 scoring opportunities over that span. Defensive structure impacts goaltending metrics, as Caps’ goalies have combined for above-average save percentages in three of their past four.

Washington’s solid defensive structure limits the offensive burden on Alex Ovechkin and the rest of the team. We’re anticipating the Capitals leaning into that structure against the Rangers, facilitating New York’s expected regression. That should help the Caps secure the much-needed two points.

The Picks: Capitals +104

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.