MBB Conference Tourney Best Bet: Oakland Golden Grizzlies to Spank Short-Handed IUPUI Jaguars

We welcome the Horizon League Tournament into the mix on Tuesday’s slate and will be targeting the first-round matchup between #12 IUPUI and #5 Oakland. The Jaguars will be hoping to pull off their second Division I win of the season in what would be a mammoth upset, while the Grizzlies are capable of making some noise in the later rounds. Let’s dive into the odds of this matchup and see where the value may lie.

IUPUI Jaguars vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: IUPUI +1400 | Oakland -5000

Spread: IUPUI +23.5 (-110) | Oakland -23.5 (-110)

Total: 124.5 Over -110 | Under -110

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

IUPUI Jaguars vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies News, Analysis, and Picks

Even though this is the biggest spread you will see on Tuesday’s college basketball slate, it still feels too short. IUPUI is the worst team in college basketball by a wide margin based on plenty of metrics and is coming off a nightmare of a regular season. Earlier this month, the Jaguars even hosted open tryouts in an attempt to fill up their roster. It was to no avail, and now a plethora of injuries and transfers leaves them with five players for this matchup. Not five scholarship players, just five players total. IUPUI will have zero subs against an Oakland team that ranks nearly 200 spots ahead of them in KenPom.

The metrics paint this one right around a 23-point victory for the Golden Grizzlies on their home court and fatigue should push us over this spread later in the second half. It wouldn’t be a surprising tactic to see veteran head coach Greg Kampe have his team get aggressive to force some foul trouble on an opponent without a substitute. Oakland’s Jalen Moore and Jamal Cain both rank in the top five in fouls drawn per 40 minutes in the Horizon League which is a valuable skill to have in this unique spot. If any IUPUI player fouls out, they will be forced to play a man down which is where this spread should be a shoo-in to cash.

The Pick: Oakland -23.5 (-110)

All NCAAM basketball game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.