NCAA Tournament Odds: Bet Ochai Agbaji To Explode Against Villanova

We still haven’t seen Kansas Jayhawks star Ochai Agbaji at his best in the NCAA Tournament.

The smooth-shooting 6-foot-5 senior forward is averaging 19 points per game over 37 contests this season, but he played rather passive in the early stages of the Big Dance. Agbaji scored 11, 15 and five points in KU’s first three games before a second-half outburst in the Elite Eight against Miami.

A little birdie told me that Kansas head coach Bill Self challenged Agbaji in the locker room at halftime in front of the entire team. Agbaji had only hoisted four shots in the first 20 minutes and the Jayhawks trailed the Hurricanes 35-29 at the break. For context, role player Jalen Coleman-Lands also took four shots in the first frame, so something needed to change.

Agbaji basically exploded out of a cannon in the second half to spearhead a humongous Kansas run that led the Jayhawks to a 76-50 rout on the West Side of Chicago. Agbaji finished with 18 points and he would have undoubtedly scored more if he wasn’t resting after the last two TV timeouts.

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I expect Agbaji to resume that aggressive approach on Saturday night against Villanova in the Final Four. Look for Self and his staff to run sets for their best player early in a valiant attempt to establish rhythm. If Agbaji gets rolling early, the sky truly is the limit for his offensive potential. Look out.

Ochai Agbaji’s highest-scoring games this season:
37 vs. Texas Tech
29 at Kansas State
29 vs. Michigan State
27 at Baylor
24 at Texas Tech
23 vs. Kansas State
23 at West Virginia
23 at St. John’s
22 vs. Iowa State
22 vs. TCU (2x)
21 vs. Dayton
21 vs. Missouri

Agbaji has gone “Over” 16.5 points in 23 of 37 games (62%) and you can find “Over” at +100, which implies a 50% chance of probability. That’s tremendous mathematical value on him to get buckets at this stage of the NCAA Tournament when odds are good he’ll be aggressive with the entire world watching.

If Agbaji plays the way I believe he can, we’ll be one step closer to cashing a big ticket.

Ochai Agbaji Over 16.5 points (+100)

RECORD: (107-102, +13.1)