MLB Odds: Three Long-Shot MVP Picks To Represent Each League
George Springer at 65-to-1 is among the most enticing
The top of the betting board offers some of the clear-cut favorites to claim 2022 MLB MVP, but the year-end winner doesn't always come from that group given the length of the campaign and ability for others to shine.
Four of the past five National League MVP winners -- Freddie Freeman (25-to-1, 2020), Cody Bellinger (30-to-1, 2019), Christian Yelich (150-to-1, 2018), Giancarlo Stanton (45-to-1, 2017) -- all had preseason prices of +2500 or more. And in the American League, just last year Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani was 30-to-1 before claiming his first MVP honor.
Well, who could be a player who fits that mold this year? Here are a few long shots (30-to-1 or longer) that could win the AL MVP and NL MVP, respectively.
American League
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (+3000 on DraftKings)
Tucker, who played 140 games in 2021 with the Astros, is Houston's most complete five-tool player while arguably the best hitter in the Astros' lineup. Tucker finished the 2021 season in the 98th percentile in expected batting average and 96th in expected slugging, as shared by The Athletic, while compiling a .294 batting average and a .917 OPS. Tucker at 30-to-1, a drop from a previous 40-to-1, remains a really good price.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (+6500 on FanDuel)
This could be viewed as our best bet given the player and the price. Springer has been plagued by injuries and it's caused him to miss significant time each of the last two seasons, and thus be looked at as worthy of 65-to-1 prices. He was limited to 78 games during his first season in Toronto. Springer, however, has shown the ability to play at a level worthy of MVP conversation as he was seventh in 2019 after recording 96 RBIs and 39 home runs in 122 games. Even in his injury-shortened season in 2021, Springer had 50 RBIs and 22 homers. Springer, a three-time All-Star, seemingly is now healthy while benefitting from hitting at the top of the loaded Blue Jays lineup. Springer could have some votes taken by teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+500), but Toronto has superstar potential to not only contend for the American League East, but win the entire thing.
Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays (+9000 on DraftKings)
Another Blue Jay not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Chapman, a three-time Gold Glove winner, may have earned the Blue Jays the best trade of the offseason. Chapman, entering his age-29 season, was a one-time All-Star with the Oakland Athletics. He now heads to a hitter-friendly ballpark with the opportunity to benefit from a deep lineup. If Chapman can perform how he did in his All-Star campaign in 2019 -- 91 RBIs, 36 home runs in 156 games -- he plays the defense to earn him a spot in the MVP conversation.
National League
Pete Alonso, New York Mets (+3500 on FanDuel)
Alonso isn't far removed from his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2019 and enters his fourth season in New York with plenty of promise. Alonso, 24, is returning after a 2021 campaign in which he had 94 RBIs and 37 home runs in 152 games. Could he lead the league in both home runs and RBIs? Sure. It's not impossible. And that big bat could go a long way in the mind of voters.
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies (+4500 on DraftKings)
Bryant, who signed with the Rockies as a free agent in mid-March, is heading to one of the best hitter's ballparks after playing the first six-plus seasons with the Chicago Cubs. The 30-year-old third baseman already is a four-time MLB All-Star while winning the NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP in consecutive seasons. The 2022 campaign could prove to be his best season since then, despite the fact it's taking place in Colorado. Overall, Bryant feels like a player deserving better than 45-to-1 to win the MVP award.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels (+5000 on DraftKings)
Rendon could very well receive the third-most MVP votes of any player on his team given that the Angels have two of the top favorites in Ohtani (+350) and Mike Trout (+450). Rendon, a two-time Silver Slugger, however, has the chance to lead the league in RBIs given that he'll be stationed in the middle of LA's lineup with Trout and Ohtani in front of him. Like so many others on this list, Rendon will need to stay healthy after consecutive seasons -- his first two in LA -- where he played 58 games or less.
