Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Game 6 Betting Model Preview

Memphis Grizzlies (6-5) | Golden State Warriors (7-3)

Date: 05/13/2022 | Time: 10:00 PM

Location: San Francisco, California | Venue: Chase Center

Spread Open: Grizzlies +9/ Warriors -9 | Current: Grizzlies +8/ Warriors -8

Game Total Open: 219 | Current: 218

Moneyline Open: Grizzlies +280/ Warriors -350 | Current: Grizzlies +300/ Warriors -375

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Memphis Grizzlies +3900

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors +220

Without Ja Morant many expected the Grizzlies to fold and pack up shop for the season, but they’ve done just the opposite, keeping things extremely close in Game 4 before picking up a massive Game 5 victory to extend their season. The Grizzlies clearly have a deep roster and without Morant being the focal point of the offense, they’ve been able to spread the ball around and get multiple players involved, which in turn has made things a lot more difficult for the Warriors in terms of defensive coverage.

The Warriors are still the better team in this series, but there’s no doubt they didn’t expect this type of competition level from the Grizzlies without their star player in the lineup.

The SportsGrid betting model likes the visiting Grizzlies in this spot, giving them a 54.13% win probability for Game 6, making the moneyline a five-star pick. The model also strongly backs the Grizzlies on the spread, another a five-star rating. The Grizzlies may not be able to replicate their Game 5 magic, but if you look at the spread tonight which currently lists the Warriors as 8-point favorites, there’s certainly a strong case to be made that the Grizzlies can cover that number and keep things close. If you have more confidence in Memphis outright, they also present really solid value on the moneyline at +310.

In terms of the total, there isn’t a massive lean one way or another, but the model does give over a 2.5-star rating which is in line with how many points we’ve seen scored in this series. Throughout Games 1 to 5, we’ve seen point totals of 233, 207, 254, 199, and 229, so the over would have hit in three of the five games at tonight’s number of 220.

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Memphis Grizzlies (54.13%) vs Golden State Warriors (45.87%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: MEM 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: MEM 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 2.5 Stars