Things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Minnesota Wild in Game 5 of their Western Conference Quarterfinal against the St. Louis Blues. For the fourth time in five games, the Wild dominated play and took a 2-1 lead into the second period. That’s where things came unglued. After rallying late in the second, the Blues carried all the momentum into the third period. St. Louis ended the game with four unanswered goals, staking itself to a 3-2 series lead and a chance to clinch a second-round berth on home ice Thursday. Standing in their way is a Wild squad that continues to outplay them night after night.
Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues Odds, Total
Moneyline: Wild -105 | Blues -115
Spread: Wild +1.5 (-275) | Blues -1.5 (+220)
Total: 6 Over -120 | Under +100
Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues Analysis
The Wild ended the season as one of the best teams at five-on-five and they haven’t missed a beat to start the postseason. Minnesota has outplayed the Blues in all but one of their opening-round games, posting a cumulative 58.7% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five. That hasn’t been enough to swing the outcomes in their favor, but another strong defensive showing should be expected in Game 6.
St. Louis has been limited to six or fewer high-danger chances in four of five, with a rolling average of 6.0 per game. Somehow, the Blues have turned those limited opportunities into five high-danger goals at five-on-five over their past two games. It’s unlikely they sustain that output considering their ineffective production metrics.
We can’t even point to their defensive metrics to substantiate their favorable outcomes, as the Blues continue to give up a concerning amount of quality opportunities. Minnesota has attempted 10 or more quality chances in three of their five matchups, out-chancing the Blues in all three games.
The Blues have struck an unsustainable rhythm to winning games, which implies that further losses are on the horizon. The Wild should revert to their rigid structure as they attempt to force a Game 7 back in their friendly confines. The betting price doesn’t warrant a play on the Wild; however, there’s no sense in passing up the value on the under.
Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues PredictionsThe Pick: Under 6 +100
